Quarterly Economic Outlook

January 9, 2012 by · Leave a Comment 

A Pivotal Year Ahead

By: James Solloway, CFA, Managing Director, Senior Portfolio Manager

The Global Portfolio Strategies Group recently released its fourth-quarter economic outlook. A summary of its conclusions is provided below:

 Europe’s debt crisis will continue to fester, although the endgame–including a restructuring of the eurozone–is within sight.

 We expect recessionary conditions in much of Europe in the early part of next year.

 The U.S. should avoid a recession. However, as has occurred in each of the past two years, there will likely be growth scares that temporarily pull down equity prices.

 Emerging economies should continue to grow more quickly than developed markets, although the banking crisis in the eurozone will hurt the prospects of Eastern Europe.

 China’s slowing growth could depress growth rates elsewhere in Asia.

 SEI looks for another year of easy monetary policy in the U.S. and a further shift toward easing by the european Central Bank, as the latter combats recession and the impact of the sovereign debt crisis on the banking system.

 Even in a scenario where the eurozone remains intact, we believe the euro itself could come under substantial downward pressure.

 We expect inflation to remain mostly inactive for another year. However, unpredictable, high-impact events (so-called black swans), along the lines of last year’s Arab spring and Japanese earthquake/tsunami/nuclear meltdown, cannot be ruled out. Obvious candidates include an uncontrolled breakup of the eurozone, intensifying political and military tensions with Iran over its expanding nuclear capabilities and a political and economic collapse of North Korea in the wake of ruler Kim Jong Il’s death.

 In terms of active asset allocation, we took advantage of the pop in stock prices during the final quarter of 2011 to even up our stock/bond positioning relative to strategic weights in the portfolios over which we have discretion. However, we continue to favor high-yield fixed-income assets versus investment-grade and sovereign debt. Within equities, we are overweight U.S. large-cap versus international, and remain particularly cautious on Europe ex-U.K. We also believe the exchange value of the euro could be at risk.

Read Jim’s full analysis –  Pivotal Year Ahead

A Brief History of Market Turbulence

August 15, 2011 by · Leave a Comment 

By: SEI Investment Management Unit

During periods of turbulence and uncertainty, it’s common to look at prior crises as benchmarks against which current conditions can be assessed, and there’s certainly no shortage of historic episodes that investors can look to for perspective. Economic and financial crises have been a regular feature of monetary economies throughout history. While no two have been exactly alike—they vary widely in size, scope, causes and length—they do tend to share some common characteristics.

Read SEI’s complete report – A Brief History of Market Turbulence

Economic Insights: Weekly Jobless Claims 8/6/2011

August 12, 2011 by · Leave a Comment 

 By: SEI Investment Management Unit

Weekly jobless claims compiled by the U.S. Department of Labor for the week ending August 6 came in at 395,000. This was a decrease of 7,000 from last week’s revised number of 402,000.

 

Our View

After 17 consecutive weeks of claims registering north of 400,000, this week’s number finally fell below that psychological mark while also setting a four-month low. Hopefully, this is the start of a new trend. With the market in need of positive data to at least partially offset recent negative developments, the claims number was welcomed by investors.

The four–week moving average, which is less volatile, fell to 405,000 from 408,250 the prior week. This is the preferred measure, as it smoothes weekly volatility and provides a better gauge of the labor environment. Individuals continuing to collect benefits fell by 60,000 to 3,688,000 for the week ending July 30. This statistic lags initial claims by one week.

With all of the recent market volatility, we need the recent good news from the labor front to keep coming. At this point, SEI continues to believe that the U.S. economy will not fall into a recession, and remains cautiously optimistic that moderate economic growth will pick up throughout the remainder of 2011.

Read the complete report – Economic Insights_Weekly Jobless Report

Long Term Care Insurance – Is it Right for You?

August 8, 2011 by · Leave a Comment 

As a sixty-two year old who manages the financial affairs for families and businesses, I find myself in a very interesting position as both an advisor and potential customer when it come to the subject of Long Term Care Insurance.  I am at that point in my life where I must give serious consideration as to whether or not my wife and I should obtain LTC insurance, so I personally understand the difficulty of the decision. In fact, I have been deliberating this decision for the past 12 years!

Since each person’s situation is unique, there is no one correct answer, however, there are some important issues to consider when making this decision.  The first, of course, is to understand the problem this insurance is designed to address.

As a result of modern medicine, most of us will enjoy a much longer life than our predecessors.  Actuarially,   a 65 year old is expected to live nearly 19 more years – that’s 7 years more than in 1900.  That’s the good news.  The bad news is that along with longevity, we are experiencing more of the chronic issues that often plague older folks and make fully independent living difficult or impossible.

Typically the progression starts with a medical issue that, for the most part, is covered by health insurance, Medicare and Medicare Supplements.  If the medical issue progresses, care can be supplemented at home by a spouse or family members. 

As we get older the concern becomes the management of physical ailments or cognitive impairments  that may exceed the ability of our family caregivers and require professional intervention – adult day-care, home health care, assisted living, or full nursing home care. It is at this point that health insurance no longer covers the cost of care, and the financial burden of these modes of care can be extraordinarily expensive. In a study done by Genworth, a leading LTC insurer, the median Massachusetts annual care costs in 2011 were :

Home Care – Homemaker services – $51,480, Home health aide – $56,628  
   
   
Adult Day Health Care - Adult day health care – $15,600
 

 

Assisted Living Facility- Private, one bedroom – $59,400
 

 

Nursing Home Care – Semi-private room – $116,800, Private room – $125,925
   
   
     

While it is possible that some portion of the above mentioned services may be covered for a short period of time by health insurance, the three primary methods of covering the costs are Self-insurance, Medicaid, and Long Term Care Insurance.

In absence of an alternative, self-paying (your checkbook) continues until virtually all assets are spent.  Unless protected in some manner, even the value of your primary residence is an includable asset under self-pay.  When assets are spent down, Medicaid will begin covering the costs at a facility that accepts Medicaid reimbursements.

An often employed strategy to protect against the spend down of assets is to transfer ownership irrevocably in order to qualify for Medicaid’s eligibility standards of poverty.  The catch is that it requires adequate preplanning to qualify under a 60 month “look back” provision since any transfer within 60 months is still includable.   The more difficult concept for many is, however, accepting the notion of giving up control of the assets that are transferred away.  The advice of a qualified attorney who specializes in this area is critical to fully understand the process and its implications.

Finally, there is the option of Long Term Care Insurance.  Here’s what needs to be considered in reviewing options:

1. What Plan Benefits and Features Should I Select?

2. What Daily or Monthly Benefit Amount Should I Select?

3. What Total Amount of Coverage Should I Choose?

4. How Long Should the Elimination Period Be?

5. How Can I Protect Myself Against the Rising Cost of Care?

To get the best answers to these questions requires a great deal of due diligence and care.  Seek the professional assistance of a trusted advisor to solicit quotes from a variety of carriers and  guide you through the numerous options that are available.  Use caution if speaking to a “specialist” that only sells LTC insurance.  As they say, “If all you have is a hammer, pretty soon everything looks like a nail”.  An independent advisor is the best bet.

The basic plan design should include coverage for home health care, assisted living, and, of course, a full nursing home care.  Every add-on beyond that is an additional expense that may not be necessary.

The benefit amount is based upon the potential cost of care – in our geographic area, $340/day is a reasonable target – minus the portion of that expense, if any, you would self insure.  As you might guess, the cost of the coverage is directly linked to the amount of benefit.

The total amount of benefit is linked to the benefit length you select.  In addition, benefits typically have an elimination period (waiting period before benefits are paid) of 90 days or more, and a benefit length that may range from 3 years to lifetime.  Again, the longer the elimination period, the less expensive, and the longer the benefit period, the more expensive.

It is highly likely that the cost of providing long term care will not go down, so to protect against rising costs LTC policies may contain an optional provision to build in a cost of living adjustment to the benefit amount.  It may be a fixed option or a compound benefit, and yes, you guessed it – the more generous the cost of living adjustment, the more expensive the policy.

The two most important factors that affect the cost of LTC insurance over which you have little control are age and health.  While policies can be purchased as young as 18, the most typical age that policyholders apply for coverage is between 50 and 65.  Married couples can qualify for sizeable discounts if both apply for coverage, but some medical conditions can increase cost or make issuance of a policy impossible.

Presuming that coverage can be issued, there are still several conditions to consider before purchase.  Perhaps the most important is the financial impact of the premium.  If it affects the ability to maintain a reasonable lifestyle, it is too expensive and probably not a good choice.

An individual’s health history and family health history should also be used as a guide. For example, if you are in excellent health and you have a long family history of folks living long, productive lives that ended with cardiac arrest, your risk factors are low.  If, on the other hand, there is a family history of chronic medical problems, your risk factors are high.

Finally, when reviewing quotes from quality carriers such as Genworth, MetLife, Mutual of Omaha, and Transamerica, an important thing to remember is that the premium for quality insurance plans cannot be raised due to your claims. BUT, the insurer can increase the premiums for the whole class of policies.  Cost can go up, and there are many examples of insurers who have raised their rates substantially.

So, you might be wondering what I’ve decided.  Since the target age for LTC insurance is 50-65, it may take another three years to finally make up my mind!

Muddling Through After the Debt Ceiling Debate

August 4, 2011 by · Leave a Comment 

debt ceiling vote

  •  After months of political wrangling, a deal has been reached to raise the U.S. debt ceiling.
  • Few are happy with the results, and long-term measures to address the debt must still be implemented.
  • While a debt-rating downgrade is still a very real possibility, the financial markets have already moved beyond the spectacle of the debate and are reacting to the host of indicators signaling a potential economic slowdown.
  • Despite the economic woes, we remain firmly in the camp of those who anticipate continued market advances.
  • We view any market pullbacks as opportunities to add to equity exposures using assets currently invested in U.S. Treasuries or investment-grade securities as a source of funding.

Read the Full Report – After the vote

 

Another Piece of the Inflation Puzzle

June 9, 2011 by · Leave a Comment 

 

Speculation about inflation is increasing as geopolitical tensions disrupt the production and supply of oil. As a result, gas prices have risen dramatically, shooting up $1.02 to $3.87 for regular unleaded from $2.85 a year ago. Since prices at the pump are highly visible and have an immediate and direct impact on consumers, people are wondering whether inflation—if it is  present—is transitory or is settling in for the long haul. 

 Below is a video presentation by Sean Simko, Head of SEI’s Fixed Income Portfolio Management team discussing the most current thinking.

Watch Video: http://www.seic.com/enUS/about/5648.htm 

 

Most Americans Haven’t Planned for Retirement and Other Areas of Concern.

June 9, 2011 by · Leave a Comment 

The “troubling picture of the state of financial capability in the United States” comes from a new working paper published by the National Bureau of Economic Research, authored by Professor Annamaria Lusardi of the George Washington School of Business. “Americans’ Financial Capability” surveyed nearly 1,500 Americans in the summer 2009 and found that not only is the household financial hole deep, but people might not be able to dig themselves out of it as easily as they thought.

Read the full article from the Wall Streeet Journal – Most Americans Haven’t Planned for Retirement

U.S. Inflation—Not a Serious Threat

June 3, 2011 by · Leave a Comment 

 Inflation Worries

 

Inflation is the topic on everyone’s mind. In the United States, a visit to the gas station is enough to cause most people to worry. In emerging-market countries, the rising cost of food has resulted in significant geopolitical unrest. While the prospects of $5-per-gallon gasoline and $4-per-gallon milk aren’t things we like to consider as consumers, as investors, SEI’s portfolios managers don’t view inflation as a major concern.   Read the full report:

U.S. Inflation – Not A Serious Threat

 

Compass Capital Corporation Economic Update

May 19, 2011 by · Leave a Comment 

Please take a moment to view our video:

CCC Economic Update

Should you have a “Bucket List”?

March 1, 2011 by · 4 Comments 

Bucket ListHaving just returned from a trip to South America that included visits to Machu Picchu, the Straights of Magellan, Cape Horn, Ushuaia, Argentina, and Rio De Janeiro, my wife and I though about how lucky we were to visit such exotic locales.

In addition to the cultural exposure, we felt that we have a deeper understanding of international issues that comes when you leave “the nest”.  We are motivated to continue our travels to the far reaches of the globe when we recover from this trip!

Discussing future trips lead us to the inevitable discussion of what’s on our “bucket list” – a term made famous by the movie of the same name.  So how does one include life’s wishes into their financial plan?

Of course, the first recommendation is to come by the office and consult with “Your Trusted Financial Advisor”.  One of our very important tasks is to assist you in understanding the financial implication of the goals you strive to achieve.

Attached is an interesting article by Robert Powell of “Market Watch” that gives great advice for those who want to create a Bucket List.

Dream big, but plan ahead!

The One Sentence Planning Idea

December 20, 2010 by · 2 Comments 

Free money:

In 2011 payroll taxes are going down b y 2%, so increase your contribution into your 401k plan by 2%!

Financial Planning for Divorce

November 24, 2010 by · Leave a Comment 

The Financial Planning Association of Massachusetts regularly host educational meetings for Certified Financial Planners.  Recently, I attended a session that discussed the issues surrounding financial planning in divorce.  Presented by Jeffrey H. Rattiner, CPA, CFP®, MBA, RFC, the information was valuable, enlightening, and a bit depressing.  I hope you never need the advice, but I am attaching the full presentation for your review.  This, of course, is not a substitute for proper legal representation, but it certainly provides valuable guidelines to consider.  Just as a warning, Mr Rattiner uses humor in his materials that you might find a bit insensitive…it was his attempt to lighten a very sad topic.

FPA MA Divorce Presentation November 19 2010

Medicare Supplement Options

November 18, 2010 by · Leave a Comment 

It’s that time of year when those clients who qualify for Medicare need to analyze the best choices for their Supplement Plan.  While one of our favorite “go-to” plans, First Freedom, will no longer be available, we have done thorough research into what we believe will be the best options in 2011. 

The plans we highlight are not HMO options.  We have selected only “Medicare Supplement”  options which means that any physician that accepts Medicare will also accept the Supplement plan…an especially important feature for clients who spend time in a second location such as Florida.

Additionally we have prepared a second summary of recommended “Part D” Rx plans.

To view the complete worksheet of the Supplement options click – 2011 Non Group Medicare Options Medical.  To view the complete worksheet of Part D Prescription Plans click- 2011 Non Group Medicare Options Rx.

Harvard Pilgrim cancels Medicare Advantage plan

September 29, 2010 by · Leave a Comment 

By Robert Weisman, Globe Staff  |  September 28, 2010

Harvard Pilgrim Health Care has notified customers that it will drop its Medicare Advantage health insurance program at the end of the year, forcing 22,000 senior citizens in Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Maine to seek alternative supplemental coverage.

The decision by Wellesley-based Harvard Pilgrim, the state’s second-largest health insurer, was prompted by a freeze in federal reimbursements and a new requirement that insurers offering the kind of product sold by Harvard Pilgrim — a Medicare Advantage private fee for service plan — form a contracted network of doctors who agree to participate for a negotiated amount of money. Under current rules, patients can seek care from any doctor.

HPHC Drops 1st Freedom

Where Does Social Security Fit in Your Plan?

August 2, 2010 by · Leave a Comment 

We get lots of inquiries about the best way to treat Social Security Retirement beneifits in the retirement planning process.  The following will help provide some insight into important aspects of this benefit:

Doing the Math on Social Security

July 15, 2010

How are your Social Security benefits figured? This question comes up a lot. The short answer is it’s complicated, MarketWatch’s Andrea Coombes says in her Personal Finance Minute.

Social Security: What Couples Should Consider

July 9, 2010

Deciding when to take your Social Security benefits is no easy matter — and it gets even more complicated when a husband and wife, who will retire at different ages, have to make that decision together. In this Personal Finance Minute, MarketWatch’s Andrea Coombes takes a look at a few things to consider.

 Timing Your Social Security Benefits

July 7, 2010

Many people start their Social Security benefits early, but given average life expectancy today, that’s often not a good idea. In today’s Personal Finance Minute, MarketWatch’s Andrea Coombes looks at the timing of your payout.