Greece, Europe in Renewed Turmoil
June 22, 2011 by Tom Licciardello, CFP · Leave a Comment
Concern over Greek debt has again come to the forefront in recent weeks. After receiving a €110 billion loan in May 2010, it now seems that the country is in need of a second financial bailout from the European Union (EU) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The loan, which could be up to a further €100 billion, could help to ensure that Greece is able to continue to service its debt and meet financial obligations over the longer-term.
Private companies and banks have been put under pressure to allow Greece to extend (or restructure) the repayment of any debt owed to them. However, credit rating agencies have warned that this would be viewed as a default and could lead to further downgrades. Greek debt is already rated below investment grade, and the impact on investor sentiment and the wider implications of further negative re-ratings could be huge.
Read the full analysis from SEI - Greece, Europe in Renewed Turmoil
U.S. Credit Downgrade—How Would It Affect Investors?
June 21, 2011 by Tom Licciardello, CFP · Leave a Comment
In recent weeks, major credit rating agencies have expressed renewed concern over the fiscal outlook for the U.S. government, even raising the possibility that it could eventually lose its AAA rating. What are the implications for investors? There’s both a short- and a long-term dimension to this question. In the near-term, the Treasury estimates that if its statutory borrowing limit is not soon raised by Congress, it could default on interest and debt repayments by August. This risk is still viewed as remote, but if it did occur, it could cause significant dislocation in markets, and a credit rating downgrade would be justified. Additionally, rating agencies worry that the U.S. government is on an unsustainable long-term fiscal path. Does any of this lead us to believe that investors should not own U.S. government debt?
Read the full report from SEI How Would a Credit Downgrade Affect Investors?
May Retail Sales Report
June 16, 2011 by Tom Licciardello, CFP · Leave a Comment
The U.S. Department of Commerce’s Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services report revealed that May headline retail sales fell .2%, which was slightly better than market expectations. The report, which contains estimated monthly sales for retail and food services that are adjusted and unadjusted for seasonal variations, also showed that retail sales less gas and autos increased .3%, just above the market consensus of .2%. April’s headline number was revised lower to .3%, while the ex-gas and autos statistic was revised higher to .3%.
Read SEI’s full research report – May Retail Sales
Another Piece of the Inflation Puzzle
June 9, 2011 by Tom Licciardello, CFP · Leave a Comment
Speculation about inflation is increasing as geopolitical tensions disrupt the production and supply of oil. As a result, gas prices have risen dramatically, shooting up $1.02 to $3.87 for regular unleaded from $2.85 a year ago. Since prices at the pump are highly visible and have an immediate and direct impact on consumers, people are wondering whether inflation—if it is present—is transitory or is settling in for the long haul. Below is a video presentation by Sean Simko, Head of SEI’s Fixed Income Portfolio Management team discussing the most current thinking.
Watch Video: http://www.seic.com/enUS/about/5648.htm
U.S. Inflation—Not a Serious Threat
June 3, 2011 by Tom Licciardello, CFP · Leave a Comment
Inflation is the topic on everyone’s mind. In the United States, a visit to the gas station is enough to cause most people to worry. In emerging-market countries, the rising cost of food has resulted in significant geopolitical unrest. While the prospects of $5-per-gallon gasoline and $4-per-gallon milk aren’t things we like to consider as consumers, as investors, SEI’s portfolios managers don’t view inflation as a major concern. Read the full report:
U.S. Inflation – Not A Serious Threat
Weekly Economic Update from SEI
May 31, 2011 by Tom Licciardello, CFP · 2 Comments
With a plethora of economic reports due in the next few days, all eyes will be on the fragile recovery. The housing market looks like a “double dipper”, but what will the next round of reports bring, and what impact will it have on your portfolio?
Compass Capital Corporation Economic Update
May 19, 2011 by Tom Licciardello, CFP · Leave a Comment
Is the Inflation Monster at the Door?
April 7, 2011 by Tom Licciardello, CFP · 1 Comment
There is an increased amount of sp
eculation about inflation, as geopolitical tensions continue to build and disrupt the production and supply of oil. The increase in rhetoric is focused around both short- and long-term inflation: if inflation is present, is it transitory or is it settling in for the long haul?
At times, it can be difficult to wrap one’s head around all of this inflation talk, especially when consumers are feeling the pain of higher prices at the gas pump and the grocery store. On a related note, have you noticed that cereal boxes have become smaller, or that bags of chips are now lighter? These are simply creative ways of passing higher prices to the consumer without causing sticker shock.
However you look at it, inflation as experienced and measured by the general consumer is at a high point. But is this a sign that persistent price inflation is just around the corner? Not necessarily, or at least not when measured through the gauges that the government uses to analyze inflation. This is why Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke remains very vocal in his view that inflation is not currently a problem and that the recent price increases in oil and commodity prices are likely to prove transitory.
Read the full commentary presented by Sean P. Simko, Managing Director of the SEI Fixed Income Portfolio Management team:
Another Piece of the Inflation Puzzle
Selling into a panic
March 15, 2011 by Tom Licciardello, CFP · Leave a Comment
As seen on the MarketWatch website:
Commentary: Market typically recovers quickly from big drops
That’s worth keeping in mind today as panic grips global stock markets.
Perhaps the closest recent domestic analogy to what Japan is going through right now is the 9-11 terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon. Just as is the case with the Japanese stock market, Wall Street plunged on the day it eventually reopened following those attacks.
But the market quickly recovered.
Consider an investor who was unlucky enough to have invested in the stock market at the close on Sept. 10, 2001, the day before the attacks. Believe it or not, within just two months that investor would have been in the black.
Making this result even more striking: It came within the context of the 2000-2002 bear market and the associated bursting of the Internet bubble.
Even industries that were otherwise decimated by the 9-11 attacks, such as airlines, recovered smartly. Six months after the attacks, for example, the NYSE ARCA Airline Index (NYSE:XAL) was just 2.3% below where it close on Sept. 10, 2001, the day before those attacks—despite the decision of numerous travelers to never fly again.
You might object that it’s dangerous to draw investment conclusions from this one turn of events.
But the market’s behavior after 9-11 was right in line with historical precedent. Consider a study conducted by Ned Davis Research, the quantitative research firm. It identified what it considered to be the 28 worst political or economic crises over the six decades prior to the 9-11 attacks—beginning with the Fall of France in 1940 and Pearl Harbor in 1941.
In 19 of these 28 cases, according to the firm, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DOW:DJIA) was higher six months after the crisis began. The average six-month DJIA gain following all 28 crises was 2.3%.
Should you have a “Bucket List”?
March 1, 2011 by Tom Licciardello, CFP · 4 Comments
Having just returned from a trip to South America that included visits to Machu Picchu, the Straights of Magellan, Cape Horn, Ushuaia, Argentina, and Rio De Janeiro, my wife and I though about how lucky we were to visit such exotic locales.
In addition to the cultural exposure, we felt that we have a deeper understanding of international issues that comes when you leave “the nest”. We are motivated to continue our travels to the far reaches of the globe when we recover from this trip!
Discussing future trips lead us to the inevitable discussion of what’s on our “bucket list” – a term made famous by the movie of the same name. So how does one include life’s wishes into their financial plan?
Of course, the first recommendation is to come by the office and consult with “Your Trusted Financial Advisor”. One of our very important tasks is to assist you in understanding the financial implication of the goals you strive to achieve.
Attached is an interesting article by Robert Powell of “Market Watch” that gives great advice for those who want to create a Bucket List.
Dream big, but plan ahead!
The One Sentence Planning Idea
December 20, 2010 by Tom Licciardello, CFP · 2 Comments
In 2011 payroll taxes are going down b y 2%, so increase your contribution into your 401k plan by 2%!
Senate Passes Tax Deal…What it means to you
December 15, 2010 by Tom Licciardello, CFP · Leave a Comment
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — With the Senate’s passage Wednesday of Tax Hike Prevention Act of 2010, it now goes to the House for consideration and a vote.
The bill contains a bevy of tax breaks — new and extended — and emergency help for the jobless. Its cost over 10 years is estimated at $858 billion.
Congress, Obama and your money
Here’s a rundown of some of the biggest ticket tax items that would affect individuals. (Except where noted, all provisions are for 2011 and 2012).
Extended income tax rates: $207.5 billion The six federal income tax rates would remain at the same levels they are today: 10%, 15%, 25%, 28%, 33% and 35%. In addition, itemized deductions would continue to be allowed in full for high-income taxpayers.
AMT fix: $137 billion More than 20 million tax filers would be protected from having to pay the so-called “wealth tax,” otherwise known as the Alternative Minimum Tax.
For tax year 2010, the bill would raise the amount of income that is exempt from the reach of the AMT to $47,450 for individuals and to $72,450 for couples filing jointly. In 2011, those exemption amounts would increase to $48,450 and $74,450 respectively.
In addition, the bill would allow taxpayers to apply nonrefundable credits (which reduce one’s tax bill dollar for dollar) to their tax liability — whether under the AMT or the regular tax code.
Social Security tax break: $112 billion Workers would get a 2 percentage-point break on their payroll tax for one year. Instead of paying 6.2% on wages up to $106,800, they would only have to pay 4.2% in 2011.
This tax break replaces the Making Work Pay credit, which expires this year.
Unlike Making Work Pay, which was limited to workers making less than $75,000 ($150,000 for couples), the payroll tax holiday would be available to everyone who pays into Social Security.
Expanded child tax credit: $91 billion The bill would retain the $1,000 child tax credit (up from $500 before the Bush tax cuts). It also would retain the reduced-earnings threshold, which allows more people to claim the credit as refundable.
A refundable tax credit is one paid to a tax filer even if the value of the credit exceeds his tax liability. So if a filer doesn’t owe any federal income tax but qualifies for the credit, it is paid to him in the form of a refund.
Smaller estate tax: $68 billion Barring any changes, the estate tax in 2011 and 2012 will be reinstated at an exemption level of $1 million and a top rate of 55%. But under the bill, the exemption level would be raised to $5 million and the top rate lowered to 35%.
The legislation would also reinstate the so-called “step up in basis” for beneficiaries of those who die in 2010, 2011 or 2012. A stepped-up basis means that when someone sells an inherited asset, his capital gains tax bill will be based on the asset’s price the day he inherited it, rather than when the decedent originally bought it.
Practically speaking that means the beneficiaries of those who died in 2010 would be allowed to choose which estate tax rules to follow — those of 2011 or those of 2010. Under 2010 rules, there is no estate tax but also no step-up rules; there is only an option to exempt $1.3 million worth of capital gains from tax.
Help for the jobless: $57 billion The unemployed would get a 13-month extension of the deadline to file for additional unemployment benefits — which go as high as 99 weeks in states hit hardest by job loss.
Extended investment tax rates: $53 billion Everybody would get to keep their low investment tax rates for the next two years. For most people, that means their qualified capital gains and dividends would continue to be taxed at 15%.
0:00 /3:06Summers: Tax deal will lower deficit
Low-income tax filers (those in the 10% and 15% brackets), however, would continue to enjoy a 0% tax rate on their capital gains or dividends.
Marriage penalty relief: $27 billion Marriage would still be hard (sorry), but not because less-than-wealthy two-earner couples would owe more to the IRS than they did when they were single.
The bill continues to ensure that the standard deduction for couples is exactly twice that for single filers. It also maintains an expanded 15% tax bracket so that the amount of income in that bracket for joint filers is exactly double that for single filers.
Expanded college credit: $18 billion. Paying for college tuition in 2011 and 2012 would be made a bit easier with the retention of the American Opportunity tax credit, which is an expansion of the HOPE tax credit.
The Opportunity credit is worth up to $2,500 (up to 100% of the first $2,000 spent and up to 25% of the next $2,500), and it may be claimed for four years’ worth of college. Eligibility to take the credit is limited to those with modified adjusted gross income below $90,000 ($180,000 for couples filing jointly).
Individual tax break extensions: Costs vary. The legislation would extend a number of tax breaks that have been introduced in the past few years such as the option to deduct on one’s federal return state and local sales tax instead of state and local income tax — at a cost of $6 billion. Also, it would extend a deduction for qualified tuition and other education-related expenses at a cost of $1.2 billion.
Less pricey extensions include a break for teachers to deduct up to $250 in classroom expenses (just under $400 million).
Financial Planning for Divorce
November 24, 2010 by Tom Licciardello, CFP · Leave a Comment
The Financial Planning Association of Massachusetts regularly host educational meetings for Certified Financial Planners. Recently, I attended a session that discussed the issues surrounding financial planning in divorce. Presented by Jeffrey H. Rattiner, CPA, CFP®, MBA, RFC, the information was valuable, enlightening, and a bit depressing. I hope you never need the advice, but I am attaching the full presentation for your review. This, of course, is not a substitute for proper legal representation, but it certainly provides valuable guidelines to consider. Just as a warning, Mr Rattiner uses humor in his materials that you might find a bit insensitive…it was his attempt to lighten a very sad topic.
The QE2 Has Sailed
November 9, 2010 by Tom Licciardello, CFP · Leave a Comment
Quantitative Easing II: Watching for Unintended Consequences
The Federal Reserve (Fed) announced a second round of quantitative easing (QE), aiming to buy $600 billion of U.S. government-issued bonds over the next eight months. The majority of the purchases are in the middle of the curve, with more than 90% in the under-ten year bracket. Added to the $30-35 billion of monthly reinvestment of principal and interest from its mortgage-backed securities (MBS) holdings, the cumulative purchases of Treasuries by the central bank should amount to some $880 billion between now and June 2011. The program itself has been left open-ended and may be extended beyond June, depending on economic conditions.
From the Desk of Timothy Shanahan
October 29, 2010 by Tom Licciardello, CFP · Leave a Comment
Dear Clients and Friends of Compass,
Last week at SEI’s corporate headquarters in Oaks PA, I heard Bill Miller, the Chairman and Chief Investment Officer of Legg Mason Capital Management (Legg Mason) present an optimistic market outlook (which I share) for the remainder of the year into 2011. I attended this adviser conference at SEI as part of my semi-annual due diligence meetings.
Legg Mason is one of the active specialist investment managers in SEI’s Large Cap Value Fund, and Bill Miller is well known in the investment industry and is frequently quoted on the markets. (Bill actually traveled to SEI, located right outside of Philadelphia, after appearing on CNBC in New York.)
I thought you would find some of the market research and perspectives Bill presented to be insightful. Tim’s SEI report
SEI Presents 3rd Quarter Review
October 26, 2010 by Tom Licciardello, CFP · Leave a Comment
Each quarter, our strategic partner, SEI, presents an analysis of market condition. This video includes investor-friendly language, and is broken down into three sections: What’s Happening in the Markets, Impact on SEI Strategies and What We’re Doing. View the video by clicking here.
Comparing Recessions…US and Japan
October 1, 2010 by Tom Licciardello, CFP · Leave a Comment
Comparing Recessions:
U.S. “Great Recession” vs. Japanese “Lost Decade”
Harvard Pilgrim cancels Medicare Advantage plan
September 29, 2010 by Tom Licciardello, CFP · Leave a Comment
By Robert Weisman, Globe Staff | September 28, 2010
Harvard Pilgrim Health Care has notified customers that it will drop its Medicare Advantage health insurance program at the end of the year, forcing 22,000 senior citizens in Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Maine to seek alternative supplemental coverage.
The decision by Wellesley-based Harvard Pilgrim, the state’s second-largest health insurer, was prompted by a freeze in federal reimbursements and a new requirement that insurers offering the kind of product sold by Harvard Pilgrim — a Medicare Advantage private fee for service plan — form a contracted network of doctors who agree to participate for a negotiated amount of money. Under current rules, patients can seek care from any doctor.







