May Retail Sales Report

June 16, 2011 by · Leave a Comment 

retail sales

 

The U.S. Department of Commerce’s Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services report revealed that May headline retail sales fell .2%, which was slightly better than market expectations. The report, which contains estimated monthly sales for retail and food services that are adjusted and unadjusted for seasonal variations, also showed that retail sales less gas and autos increased .3%, just above the market consensus of .2%. April’s headline number was revised lower to .3%, while the ex-gas and autos statistic was revised higher to .3%.

Read SEI’s full research report – May Retail Sales

Another Piece of the Inflation Puzzle

June 9, 2011 by · Leave a Comment 

 

Speculation about inflation is increasing as geopolitical tensions disrupt the production and supply of oil. As a result, gas prices have risen dramatically, shooting up $1.02 to $3.87 for regular unleaded from $2.85 a year ago. Since prices at the pump are highly visible and have an immediate and direct impact on consumers, people are wondering whether inflation—if it is  present—is transitory or is settling in for the long haul. 

 Below is a video presentation by Sean Simko, Head of SEI’s Fixed Income Portfolio Management team discussing the most current thinking.

Watch Video: http://www.seic.com/enUS/about/5648.htm 

 

Most Americans Haven’t Planned for Retirement and Other Areas of Concern.

June 9, 2011 by · Leave a Comment 

The “troubling picture of the state of financial capability in the United States” comes from a new working paper published by the National Bureau of Economic Research, authored by Professor Annamaria Lusardi of the George Washington School of Business. “Americans’ Financial Capability” surveyed nearly 1,500 Americans in the summer 2009 and found that not only is the household financial hole deep, but people might not be able to dig themselves out of it as easily as they thought.

Read the full article from the Wall Streeet Journal – Most Americans Haven’t Planned for Retirement

U.S. Inflation—Not a Serious Threat

June 3, 2011 by · Leave a Comment 

 Inflation Worries

 

Inflation is the topic on everyone’s mind. In the United States, a visit to the gas station is enough to cause most people to worry. In emerging-market countries, the rising cost of food has resulted in significant geopolitical unrest. While the prospects of $5-per-gallon gasoline and $4-per-gallon milk aren’t things we like to consider as consumers, as investors, SEI’s portfolios managers don’t view inflation as a major concern.   Read the full report:

U.S. Inflation – Not A Serious Threat

 

Weekly Economic Update from SEI

May 31, 2011 by · 2 Comments 

stock marketWith a plethora of economic reports due in the next few days, all eyes will be on the fragile recovery.  The housing market looks like a “double dipper”, but what will the next round of reports bring, and what impact will it have on your portfolio?

SEI May31 weekly update

Compass Capital Corporation Economic Update

May 19, 2011 by · Leave a Comment 

Please take a moment to view our video:

CCC Economic Update

Is the Inflation Monster at the Door?

April 7, 2011 by · 1 Comment 

 

There is an increased amount of speculation about inflation, as geopolitical tensions continue to build and disrupt the production and supply of oil. The increase in rhetoric is focused around both short- and long-term inflation: if inflation is present, is it transitory or is it settling in for the long haul?

At times, it can be difficult to wrap one’s head around all of this inflation talk, especially when consumers are feeling the pain of higher prices at the gas pump and the grocery store. On a related note, have you noticed that cereal boxes have become smaller, or that bags of chips are now lighter? These are simply creative ways of passing higher prices to the consumer without causing sticker shock.

However you look at it, inflation as experienced and measured by the general consumer is at a high point. But is this a sign that persistent price inflation is just around the corner? Not necessarily, or at least not when measured through the gauges that the government uses to analyze inflation. This is why Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke remains very vocal in his view that inflation is not currently a problem and that the recent price increases in oil and commodity prices are likely to prove transitory.

Read the full commentary presented by Sean P. Simko, Managing Director of the SEI Fixed Income Portfolio Management team:

Another Piece of the Inflation Puzzle

 

Selling into a panic

March 15, 2011 by · Leave a Comment 

As seen on the MarketWatch website:

Panic!Commentary: Market typically recovers quickly from big drops

CHAPEL HILL, N.C. (MarketWatch) — It rarely pays to sell into a panic.

That’s worth keeping in mind today as panic grips global stock markets.

Perhaps the closest recent domestic analogy to what Japan is going through right now is the 9-11 terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon. Just as is the case with the Japanese stock market, Wall Street plunged on the day it eventually reopened following those attacks.

But the market quickly recovered.

Consider an investor who was unlucky enough to have invested in the stock market at the close on Sept. 10, 2001, the day before the attacks. Believe it or not, within just two months that investor would have been in the black.

Making this result even more striking: It came within the context of the 2000-2002 bear market and the associated bursting of the Internet bubble.

Even industries that were otherwise decimated by the 9-11 attacks, such as airlines, recovered smartly. Six months after the attacks, for example, the NYSE ARCA Airline Index (NYSE:XAL)   was just 2.3% below where it close on Sept. 10, 2001, the day before those attacks—despite the decision of numerous travelers to never fly again.

You might object that it’s dangerous to draw investment conclusions from this one turn of events.

But the market’s behavior after 9-11 was right in line with historical precedent. Consider a study conducted by Ned Davis Research, the quantitative research firm. It identified what it considered to be the 28 worst political or economic crises over the six decades prior to the 9-11 attacks—beginning with the Fall of France in 1940 and Pearl Harbor in 1941.

In 19 of these 28 cases, according to the firm, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DOW:DJIA)   was higher six months after the crisis began. The average six-month DJIA gain following all 28 crises was 2.3%.

Should you have a “Bucket List”?

March 1, 2011 by · 4 Comments 

Bucket ListHaving just returned from a trip to South America that included visits to Machu Picchu, the Straights of Magellan, Cape Horn, Ushuaia, Argentina, and Rio De Janeiro, my wife and I though about how lucky we were to visit such exotic locales.

In addition to the cultural exposure, we felt that we have a deeper understanding of international issues that comes when you leave “the nest”.  We are motivated to continue our travels to the far reaches of the globe when we recover from this trip!

Discussing future trips lead us to the inevitable discussion of what’s on our “bucket list” – a term made famous by the movie of the same name.  So how does one include life’s wishes into their financial plan?

Of course, the first recommendation is to come by the office and consult with “Your Trusted Financial Advisor”.  One of our very important tasks is to assist you in understanding the financial implication of the goals you strive to achieve.

Attached is an interesting article by Robert Powell of “Market Watch” that gives great advice for those who want to create a Bucket List.

Dream big, but plan ahead!

The One Sentence Planning Idea

December 20, 2010 by · 2 Comments 

Free money:

In 2011 payroll taxes are going down b y 2%, so increase your contribution into your 401k plan by 2%!

Financial Planning for Divorce

November 24, 2010 by · Leave a Comment 

The Financial Planning Association of Massachusetts regularly host educational meetings for Certified Financial Planners.  Recently, I attended a session that discussed the issues surrounding financial planning in divorce.  Presented by Jeffrey H. Rattiner, CPA, CFP®, MBA, RFC, the information was valuable, enlightening, and a bit depressing.  I hope you never need the advice, but I am attaching the full presentation for your review.  This, of course, is not a substitute for proper legal representation, but it certainly provides valuable guidelines to consider.  Just as a warning, Mr Rattiner uses humor in his materials that you might find a bit insensitive…it was his attempt to lighten a very sad topic.

FPA MA Divorce Presentation November 19 2010

The QE2 Has Sailed

November 9, 2010 by · Leave a Comment 

Quantitative Easing II: Watching for Unintended Consequences  

By: James Solloway, CFA, Managing Director, Senior Portfolio Manager
   

The Federal Reserve (Fed) announced a second round of quantitative easing (QE), aiming to buy $600 billion of U.S. government-issued bonds over the next eight months. The majority of the purchases are in the middle of the curve, with more than 90% in the under-ten year bracket. Added to the $30-35 billion of monthly reinvestment of principal and interest from its mortgage-backed securities (MBS) holdings, the cumulative purchases of Treasuries by the central bank should amount to some $880 billion between now and June 2011. The program itself has been left open-ended and may be extended beyond June, depending on economic conditions.  

Read the full report here – QE2

From the Desk of Timothy Shanahan

October 29, 2010 by · Leave a Comment 

October 28, 2010

Dear Clients and Friends of Compass,

Last week at SEI’s corporate headquarters in Oaks PA, I heard Bill Miller, the Chairman and Chief Investment Officer of Legg Mason Capital Management (Legg Mason) present an optimistic market outlook (which I share) for the remainder of the year into 2011.  I attended this adviser conference at SEI as part of my semi-annual due diligence meetings.

Legg Mason is one of the active specialist investment managers in SEI’s Large Cap Value Fund, and Bill Miller is well known in the investment industry and is frequently quoted on the markets.  (Bill actually traveled to SEI, located right outside of Philadelphia, after appearing on CNBC in New York.)

I thought you would find some of the market research and perspectives Bill presented to be insightful.  Tim’s SEI report

SEI Presents 3rd Quarter Review

October 26, 2010 by · Leave a Comment 

SEI LogoEach quarter, our strategic partner, SEI, presents an analysis of market condition. This video includes investor-friendly language, and is broken down into three sections: What’s Happening in the Markets, Impact on SEI Strategies and What We’re Doing.  View the video by clicking here.

Comparing Recessions…US and Japan

October 1, 2010 by · Leave a Comment 

 SEI Logo

 

Comparing Recessions:

U.S. “Great Recession” vs. Japanese “Lost Decade”

A spate of economic data during the summer months once again raised concerns that the U.S. economy is facing a “lost decade” like the one Japan experienced from 1991-2001, when Japanese economic growth practically flatlined in spite of extremely low interest rates. While we see similarities between the two situations, a closer look reveals significant differences which we believe ultimately render them uncomparable
 
 By James Solloway, Managing Director, Portfolio Strategies US Recession vs Japan

Investment Update: The Summer of Our Discontent

August 10, 2010 by · Leave a Comment 

 

Ordinarily, it’s pretty quiet on Wall Street this time of the year, as many investment professionals take the opportunity to spend their summer vacations in the Hamptons. But this isn’t an ordinary year. Houses in the Hamptons can be rented by the month instead of by the season, and many of those houses are sitting vacant, waiting to be sold. The economic and market environments certainly haven’t lent themselves to a relaxing vacation for anyone.

There seems to be nothing but pessimism, but what is an investor to do? Read Kevin Barr’s assesment as SEI’s Head of Investment Management Services here. SEI’s August Investor’s Report

SEI’s Second Quarter Review

July 26, 2010 by · Leave a Comment 

SEI LogoWhere have we been, and where are we headed? 

The following Outlook and Positioning presentation highlights issues such as:

  • Causes of the second quarter’s market disarray
  • Positives in the economic outlook 
  • Developments to watch in the short and long term

SEI explains their reaction to current economic conditions here.

A Midyear Financial Checkup Can Make For a Smarter Second Half

July 26, 2010 by · Leave a Comment 

This is not the time of year when everyone wants to stay indoors with their finances. But a midyear review of your tax situation, retirement and spending issues can be far more valuable than the rushed attempt most people make at the end of the year — or when it’s too late at tax time.

Summer’s actually a good time to do this task because there’s still enough time to correct lapses in savings, spending or tax planning.

Budget: How’s your spending going? It’s a good time to see what’s being spent on non-essentials and whether you can make some cuts and redirect those funds towards bills or savings. A look at the last six months of spending may reveal opportunities to reduce spending and redirect money toward more necessary goals. Also, take a look at such things as gym memberships, magazines that are piled up and coffee expenses. If you’re not using these things, you can probably live without them. Doing this exercise can identify a surprisingly large amount that’s unaccounted for that can be redirected to debt payment, savings and investments.

Taxes: If you got a sizable refund in April or found it necessary to empty savings to pay Uncle Sam, it’s definitely time to reassess what you’ll owe at tax time next year. Also, if you think you’ll have some losing stocks in your taxable investment accounts, keep an eye on those in case you’ll need to offset gains in your portfolio at the end of the year.

Retirement savings: If you are on schedule to max out your contributions to your company retirement plan this year, great. But don’t forget to check your existing IRAs and other retirement accounts to see if you’ll have enough cash on hand to contribute the maximum in each account by their respective deadlines next year.

Health and health insurance: Increasingly, what we pay for health insurance will be tied to the state of our health. While the weather is good, commit to a plan to walk or hit the gym a specific number of hours a week.

Emergency fund: We encourage you to have between three to six months of living expenses in an emergency fund.  If you don’t have that minimum, go back to your spending review and see where you can start socking money away. 

College savings: If you are saving for your child’s education or your own, check to see if you’re on track with the goals you made for the year. It’s also a good idea to read the latest news on financial aid since schools change their financial aid policies annually.  Even if your kid’s still in grade school, it’s a good idea to learn as much about college financial aid while you’ve got plenty of time to learn.

Special goals: If your car is suddenly looking like it will need to be replaced or if this might be the last year for your furnace, see if you can direct more money into a reserve fund to cover replacement costs or at least a heavy down payment. If there’s a vacation you want to take by the end of the year or a special household purchase you want to make, focus on the cash you’ll set aside to make that happen.  Of course, if you have credit card debt rolling over from one month to the next, maybe that should be your initial focus.

Credit: If you haven’t set a schedule for receiving your three credit reports throughout the year, do it now. You have the right to get all three of your credit reports – from Experian, TransUnion and Equifax – once a year for free. You can do so by ordering them at http://www.annualcreditreport.com. By staggering each receipt of your credit reports at different points in the year, you’ll get a continuous picture of how your credit picture looks. Also, you’ll have the opportunity to focus on possible errors in a single report, which will give the other two credit agencies time to update their files.

As Annuities Get Attention in Washington, It’s Worth Reviewing the Basics

June 17, 2010 by · Leave a Comment 

Recent research from the Financial Planning Association® (FPA®) shows that planners are embracing annuity products to help a more conservative generation of clients protect assets and reach their retirement goals. Apparently the White House is getting in on the annuity bandwagon as well.

The question is, should you? First, start with the definition. An annuity is a financial product that accepts funds from an individual with a plan to grow them, and then at a specific time begins a stream of regular payments to guarantee a steady flow of inflation-protected cash to that individual until they die. Annuities come with various features, which will be detailed below.

The whole notion of guaranteed payments after an economic crisis seems to be more attractive these days.

A report in the April FPA Journal of Financial Planning stated that 35 percent of advisers surveyed said the recent financial crisis had changed the way they viewed annuities and as a result, they were more likely to use or recommend them than they were before the crisis. Washington also appears to be getting friendly with annuities as a conservative solution for those in retirement. In January, the Obama Administration released a report from its Middle Class Task Force favoring annuities as one of a series of tools that might offer guaranteed life income to millions of Americans.

Annuities have plenty of promoters and detractors, and it’s best to start by reading as much about them as possible first, and then discussing your retirement savings choices with your tax professional and an experienced financial adviser. Some basics:

Annuities come in two flavors – fixed and variable: Fixed annuities offer a return that are tied to interest rates or a particular index, meaning these are “fixed” investments your money will always be tied to. Variable annuities are invested in a series of investments — including mutual funds — that allow the investor to change their investment allocations. If you are willing to pay heftier fees, you may be able to receive a guarantee that your variable annuity will not dip below the value of the initial principal.

Tax-deferred growth, but payments are taxed as ordinary income: Just like a 401(k) or IRA, the contributions and earnings within an annuity grow tax-deferred until the funds start coming out. But also like a 401(k) or IRA, you pay a 10 percent penalty for early withdrawals if you are younger than age 59 ½. Yet there’s a tradeoff for a lifetime guaranteed payment, and that’s the taxman. All withdrawals are treated as ordinary income and don’t qualify for more favorable long-term capital gains treatment.

Money for life, but check the company thoroughly: The number one selling point of any annuity is that the issuer – typically an insurance company that writes up an annuity contract – guarantees that you will receive money for as long as you live. Of course, you need to make sure the insurance company behind the annuity contract is financially healthy. Check its Comdex ranking, which is an average percentile ranking of credit ratings provided for life and health insurance companies by firms such as Moody’s Investors Service, A.M. Best Company and Standard & Poor’s Corporation.

Fees and commissions can be steep: Always ask how much commission an agent makes – and planners can be agents if they are properly licensed – when they sell you an annuity. And be sure to compare commissions and ongoing fees on any annuity products you consider. Also keep in mind that some annuities can charge a surrender fee if you withdraw your money before age 59 ½ in addition to the 10 percent penalty.

Compare promised returns: We’re still in a low interest-rate environment. Understand how any annuity you’re considering will react in various interest rate scenarios.

Check out consequences of transferring an annuity: Find out what the tax and economic ramifications might be for transferring an annuity to spouses or other family members when you die. This effort should be part of an overall review of your personal finances and the creation of an estate plan.

Stay diversified: Keep in mind that putting everything you have into an annuity is not good financial planning. Discuss how you should allocate all your assets as you head into your retirement years.

Investment Update: Market Volatility Continues

June 5, 2010 by · Leave a Comment 

 

From a market perspective, the month of May had more than its fair share of challenges. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 7.92% for the month, the worst percentage decline for the month of May since 1940. In addition, markets have been highly volatile, as shown by the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX), a measure of implied volatility in the S&P 500 Index that is also known as the “fear index;” it rose from 22 at the end of April to 33 by the end of May. From continued gloom cast by the sovereign-debt crisis in peripheral Europe to the “Flash Crash” on May 6, when U.S. blue-chip stocks made a staggering 1,000-point decline before recovering a majority of the drop by the end of the day, it is easy to see why investors remain cautious. 

 Kevin P. Barr, Head of SEI Investment Management Unit, presents the Market Volatility.