Quarterly Economic Outlook

January 9, 2012 by · Leave a Comment 

A Pivotal Year Ahead

By: James Solloway, CFA, Managing Director, Senior Portfolio Manager

The Global Portfolio Strategies Group recently released its fourth-quarter economic outlook. A summary of its conclusions is provided below:

 Europe’s debt crisis will continue to fester, although the endgame–including a restructuring of the eurozone–is within sight.

 We expect recessionary conditions in much of Europe in the early part of next year.

 The U.S. should avoid a recession. However, as has occurred in each of the past two years, there will likely be growth scares that temporarily pull down equity prices.

 Emerging economies should continue to grow more quickly than developed markets, although the banking crisis in the eurozone will hurt the prospects of Eastern Europe.

 China’s slowing growth could depress growth rates elsewhere in Asia.

 SEI looks for another year of easy monetary policy in the U.S. and a further shift toward easing by the european Central Bank, as the latter combats recession and the impact of the sovereign debt crisis on the banking system.

 Even in a scenario where the eurozone remains intact, we believe the euro itself could come under substantial downward pressure.

 We expect inflation to remain mostly inactive for another year. However, unpredictable, high-impact events (so-called black swans), along the lines of last year’s Arab spring and Japanese earthquake/tsunami/nuclear meltdown, cannot be ruled out. Obvious candidates include an uncontrolled breakup of the eurozone, intensifying political and military tensions with Iran over its expanding nuclear capabilities and a political and economic collapse of North Korea in the wake of ruler Kim Jong Il’s death.

 In terms of active asset allocation, we took advantage of the pop in stock prices during the final quarter of 2011 to even up our stock/bond positioning relative to strategic weights in the portfolios over which we have discretion. However, we continue to favor high-yield fixed-income assets versus investment-grade and sovereign debt. Within equities, we are overweight U.S. large-cap versus international, and remain particularly cautious on Europe ex-U.K. We also believe the exchange value of the euro could be at risk.

Read Jim’s full analysis –  Pivotal Year Ahead

Eurozone Crisis Hits Home

November 15, 2011 by · Leave a Comment 

 Eurozone crisis

U.S. Investors Focused on Capital, Counter-Party Risks 

By: SEI Investment Management Unit

 

 

    • As government debt problems intensify in the European Monetary Union (EMU), financial firms outside of Europe have come under increasing pressure.
    •  MF Global, a small U.S.-based broker-dealer, recently declared bankruptcy due to its exposure to EMU government debt; another, Jefferies, has come under intense investor scrutiny. These episodes illustrate the powerful effects that fear and uncertainty can have on investor behavior and market volatility.
    •  The larger issue is not individual firms, but the risk of contagion from Europe to the global financial system and world economy.

Read SEI’s complete analysis –  Eurozone crisis hits home

 

That Pesky European Issue…Ewww!

November 11, 2011 by · 1 Comment 

Is the Euro Broken?

The turmoil in Europe continues with the focus now shifted to Italy.  Does that mean Greece is out of the woods?  Does Berlusconi’s replacement mean Italy’s worries are over?  Does the market upturn mean we’re done with volatility?
Well, we don’t think it’s done yet.
The European financial crisis is top of the news every day now with bailouts being structured and governments re-arranging their deck chairs in Greece and Italy. SEI’s Investment Management Unit has authored a commentary worth reading.  Read the full report here, and an executive summary below:
  • Although critical details are still being worked out, the European Union’s (EU) recently announced rescue package for Greece is the broadest, most strategic attempt yet to deal with Europe’s sovereign debt crisis.
  • The plan aims to lower Greece’s government debt-to-gross-domestic-product ratio over the next decade while containing potential short-term damage to the financial system, increasing the size of the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF), and garnering support from private-sector investors and foreign governments.
  • Greece, which must agree to the plan before it can be implemented, is experiencing serious political upheaval. It must first form an interim unity government and name a new prime minister before the proposed rescue plan can be voted on.
  • Under the most optimistic outcome, the plan buys Greece, troubled European governments, and the European and global financial system some more time, kicking the can further down the road to be fully dealt with at a later date. A more pessimistic view is that Greece and its creditors will experience a disorderly debt collapse, and Greece will be forced to exit the European Monetary Union (EMU or eurozone, the countries that have adopted the euro as their official currency).
  • Whatever the outcome, bringing additional clarity to the issue is likely to benefit financial markets and investors far more than the prevailing confusion and uncertainty.

SEI’s View:
…We are not in the camp of those calling for global recession, but we do not expect the world economy to do much more than continue to muddle along for the foreseeable future. While certain risky asset classes continue to carry attractive long-term price tags in our view, investor fear and risk aversion remain elevated, even after the recent equity rally. For the foreseeable future, the fate of world financial markets will continue to hinge in large part on the direction of Europe’s debt crisis, financial system and economy.

Driving Into Second Gear

October 18, 2011 by · 1 Comment 

The link below will bring you to a short 7 minute presentation (prepared courtesy of SEI Investments and presented by the Compass Capital Corporation Chief Investment Officer, Tim Shanahan) to advise you on our current thinking about the economic recovery so far in 2011 and some of our reasons for optimism and reasons for caution. In any case please remember that we have built your portfolio for a time like this.

Driving Into Second Gear


Note this presentation requires Adobe 9or X or better to view.

Thanks for taking the time to watch it and if you have any questions please feel free to contact us.

Incorporating Emergency Planning and Disaster Preparedness into Financial Planning

August 27, 2011 by · Leave a Comment 

by John H. Robinson


John H. Robinson is a Honolulu-based financial planner. He has written and published numerous peer-reviewed professional papers including the CFP Board of Standards 2008 Outstanding Paper Award winner and the 2010 International Foundation for Retirement Education Best Paper Award winner, both of which he co-authored with the University of Hawaii’s Shidler College of Business. He has been in the planning profession since 1989.
Executive Summary

  • Despite the media attention in the wake of several recent natural disasters, emergency planning and disaster preparedness remain relegated to the backwaters of financial planning. This paper argues that the topic merits the same level of consideration in the client-planner dialogue as other holistic planning topics, such as estate planning, asset protection, and insurance risk management.
  • The author suggests that a distinction be made between emergency planning and disaster preparedness and that both be considered sub-topics under the broader heading of crisis management.
  • This paper introduces advisers to a number of resources to help them build a knowledge base and offers a basic framework for developing a crisis management plan for individual families.
  • The author contends that many of the planning strategies recommended by leading public institutions, such as the Federal Emergency Management Association (FEMA) and the American Red Cross, are not best practices, and suggests that there is a need for greater critical thinking.
  • Although some may contend that crisis management is outside the realm of financial planning, this paper shows that certain aspects of it are directly germane and suggests that financial planners are uniquely positioned to raise client awareness, even if such issues are beyond the planner’s normal range of expertise.

As happened in the wake of Hurricane Katrina; the recent earthquake in Japan; the tornados in Mississippi, Tennessee, and Massachusetts; and the engineered flooding in Louisiana have focused a spotlight on emergency planning and disaster preparedness. However, despite extensive media attention, crisis management remains relegated to the backwaters of financial planning, with only a small minority of planners incorporating it into their practices. Reasons for this are likely varied. For some advisers, reluctance to include crisis management in the planner-client dialogue may be attributable to negative perceptions and stereotypes of “survivalists.” Other advisers may argue that it is beyond the scope of the planner’s expertise or that, as important as it may be, it is outside the realm of financial planning.

A review of both recent news articles and scholarly literature shows that “emergency” and “disaster” are often employed interchangeably. However, although these two terms are certainly related under the broad heading of crisis management, they are not perfectly synonymous, and the financial planning community would do well to formalize this distinction. Specifically, “emergency” is implicitly associated with urgency and the need for a short-term response, and “disaster” invokes images of prolonged or permanent devastation. From a professional planning perspective, it seems sensible to define “emergency planning” as an action plan or set of plans for helping families respond quickly and rationally to potential crises and to define “disaster preparedness” as more of a checklist of items a family might need to manage a particular prolonged crisis.

The fact that agencies such as the Federal Emergency Management Association (FEMA) and the American Red Cross have devoted significant resources to educating the American public about how to prepare for various threats suggests that crisis management merits mainstream consideration. According to FEMA, an average of 50 natural disasters of varying scale occurs each year in the United States, and no locations are immune to such threats. The notion that the topic warrants household-level discussion is bolstered by recent public comments from Dr. Jonathan Links, director of Johns Hopkins Center for Public Health Preparedness, who noted in an ABC News interview that although the federal and state governments have preparedness plans in place, most American families are ill-prepared to respond to catastrophe. This sentiment is echoed by director of the National Center for Disaster Preparedness Dr. Irwin Redlener, who in a 2008 paper in the journal Social Research stated, “What has been surprising, and, to a large extent disconcerting, has been an appreciation developed since 2001 of the complexity and inadequacy of societal preparation for, mitigation of, and recovery from very large-scale disasters.” This paper seeks to introduce the planning community to the topic in greater detail and argues that it merits inclusion in the profession alongside other standard non-investment-related topics, such as estate planning, asset protection, and insurance risk management.

 

Financial Preparedness

Despite the position of some advisers that crisis management is beyond the realm of financial planning, there are a number of aspects to protecting one’s finances in the face of a crisis that are clearly germane to the planning function. For instance, many emergency planning publications and websites suggest keeping a certain amount of cash on hand in the event that banks and the networks that operate credit cards and ATM machines are not operational. There does not appear to be any widespread agreement on the amount of emergency cash one should have and there is no empirical research guidance on a “proper” allocation percentage or dollar amount, but the consensus seems to be in the $100-$1,000 range. The desire to keep more than that amount on hand must be balanced against the obvious security risks of keeping large sums of cash in one’s home or automobile. Incorporating such guidance into the existing dialogue should be relatively simple. To the extent, that the planner has already determined an appropriate allocation for normal liquidity and emergency reserves, suggesting that clients allocate some sub-set of these reserves to physical currency is an easy step that allows the clients to personalize the amount based upon their circumstances and perceived vulnerability.

Another important financial preparedness step that is regularly recommended in social science publications and leading online crisis management websites is to preserve copies of important family financial information. Bank, brokerage, and real property records are commonly referenced items for inclusion, but a comprehensive best practices checklist should likely also include such items as copies of driver’s licenses, passports, Social Security cards, estate planning documents, credit cards (front and back), appraisal records, birth and marriage records, medical records, and insurance information. Although preparedness publications and websites commonly suggest making physical or digital back-up copies of this information and storing them at a location away from one’s home, such as in one’s office or in a safe deposit box; an alternative back-up storage solution that warrants best practice consideration is to subscribe to a web-based online vaulting facility. In addition to being arguably more secure than many non-bank brick-and-mortar storage facilities, this solution lends itself well to regular updating and allows 24/7 access to one’s data from anywhere on the planet where there is Internet service. (Although not directly related to one’s finances, family photos are often priceless and irreplaceable, and also lend themselves well to such online archiving.)

On the more extreme end of the financial preparedness spectrum, the financial crises of the past decade have led some Americans to consider hoarding gold and silver bullion and coins. Although these instruments may be suitable as low-correlation diversifiers or as tool for hedging against inflation for a portion of an investment portfolio, the practicality of using precious metals as a form of currency during a prolonged crisis is debatable, and the likelihood of an apocalyptic event that would create such circumstances is low. Intuitively, the notion that gold bullion or coins such as Krugerrands, Maple Leafs, or American Eagles will become standard currency seems far-fetched, as one can envision the difficulty of a task as simple as making change. That said, some entrepreneurial bullion dealers have taken to selling 1-ounce bars divisible into one-eighths or one-tenths denominations for this very purpose. As suggested by famed Wall Street economist and author of the 2008 survivalist tome Wealth, War, and Wisdom, Barton Biggs, the greater likelihood in such a dire, extreme environment is that a barter system would prevail and that basic materials such as food and water would reign as the precious commodities of the day. As with hoarding cash, the potential benefits of storing large quantities of precious metals at one’s home must be balanced against the security risks (fire, theft, tornado, etc.). Similarly, a few purveyors of crisis management guidance also recommend establishing foreign bank accounts to provide security abroad in the event of a domestic financial collapse. Again, the probability of an event that would require such a safe haven is generally regarded as extremely low, although if one regularly travels to a particular country or foreign region, it might be a rational planning step in the context of other financial objectives.

 

Literature and Resources

A financial planner’s foray into providing crisis management guidance necessarily begins with a foundation of knowledge beyond just the cursory information and tips provided by the popular press. For those financial planners who wish to become better informed on crisis management issues, scanning the existing body of published academic and professional research is a logical place to start. Although there is a paucity of published research in traditional finance journals, there is a trove of literature in social science publications. Although a preponderance of this material is written for public policy officials, health organizations, and large corporations, a considerable volume of information may be useful for grassroots-level individual planning. One such paper is “Disaster Preparedness: Concepts, Guidance, and Research” (2006) by Jeannette Sutton and Kathleen Tierney of the University of Colorado’s Institute of Behavioral Science Natural Hazards Center. The report provides exhaustive professional insight into all levels of planning and contains an extraordinarily detailed 18-page Household Preparedness checklist (see the Appendix for an abbreviated version of such a checklist).

Another suitable piece is “The 2008 American Preparedness Project: Why Parents May Not Heed Evacuation Orders and What Emergency Planners, Families, and Schools Need to Know.” This paper, produced by Columbia University’s Mailman School of Public Health, highlights important findings from a 2008 preparedness survey. The introduction to the paper notes, “Current and trend data from these surveys reveal a disjuncture between Americans’ awareness and sensitivity to possible natural and man-made threats and their consistently low levels of personal preparedness.” The surveys reveal that approximately half of parents do not know the location to which their children would be evacuated as part of their school’s disaster plan. The survey data also found that only 44 percent of families have all or some of the basic elements of a disaster preparedness plan.

In addition to published academic research, a wealth of important crisis management information is available on public websites. FEMA (www.fema.gov) and the American Red Cross (www.redcross.org) are probably the two best-known resources, and both contain a tremendous amount of important family-specific guidance. Other useful resource sites include the aforementioned National Hazards Center (www.colorado.edu/hazards, which serves as a clearinghouse for preparedness research), the National Center for Disaster Preparedness (www.ncdp.mailman.columbia.edu), and the Johns Hopkins Center for Public Health Preparedness (www.jhsph.edu/preparedness).

A Planner’s Starting Point: Hazard Identification

According to the aforementioned treatise by Sutton and Tierney, identifying the most likely threats is the starting point for building a family-centered crisis management plan. Table 1 lists many of the national and man-made threats, categorized by geographic scale, referenced on institutional and governmental crisis management websites.

Table 1 Types of Emergencies

Local Regional National/Global
House fire Power outage Pandemic/epidemic
Home invasion Hurricane Financial collapse
Tornado Earthquake Volcanic eruption
Flooding Tsunami Nuclear disaster
Landslide/rockfall Terrorism
Chemical release
Nuclear disaster
Wildfire
Winter storm
Dam failure
Volcanic eruption

 

Although some of these potential threats apply to all families, others are regional or local in nature. To assess the various threats posed to each family, planners and their clients are advised to consult their local department of emergency management (or equivalent municipal preparedness division) website. These sites typically provide locally specific information such as evacuation zone maps, maps of emergency shelter locations, and other important geographically precise preparedness guidance.

Consideration of the range of threats posted in Table 1 intuitively leads to the conclusion that at least two separate sets of emergency plans are required for each family-one for threats that require evacuating the family from its place of residence and another for threats that may require retreating to the residence. A third, perhaps less intuitive, emergency plan is also required for addressing crises that occur when family members are separated from each other. The design of such plans may be expected to involve a confluence of considerations, such as housing type (house, condo, apartment, etc.), topographic and geographic location, number of family members, proximity to aid (neighbors, police, fire, first responders, etc.), and whether there are any special needs considerations (elderly or disabled family members, young children, and/or pets). Although each family’s set of emergency plans is likely unique, Table 2 lists some common elements for each of the three types of plans.

 

 

 

Table 2 Common Elements of the Three Types of Family Emergency Plans

Home Evacuation Plan: Immediate Local Threat (fire, home invasion, etc.) Home Evacuation Plan: Impending External Threat (tsunami, tornado, hurricane, etc.) Plan for Handling Family Separation
Have smoke/carbon monoxide detectors, fire extinguishers Keep emergency grab-and-go kits in each car (see Appendix) Have two-way radios in each vehicle and one for each child
Have security system with 911 panic button in master bedroom keypad Establish an evacuation destination in advance Designate a distant relative or friend as point of contact
Have fire escapes/emergency ladders from children’s bedrooms Plan an alternate destination in case of inaccessibility Use Red Cross “Safe and Well” registration
Put flashlights in every room or at least every bedroom Pre-plan for elderly, disabled, pet evacuations Pre-plan for gathering young children, elderly, people with disabilities
Identify two escape routes from every room Post family evacuation plan in common area Learn school or daycare evacuation plans
Select a nearby place to gather following evacuation Review and update plan regularly Put emergency contact information in young children’s backpacks
Store important family and financial information in secure online vault (driver’s licenses, passports, credit cards, family photos, planning docs, etc.)

The emergency plans in Table 2 assist families in surviving and enduring potentially traumatic events over a short period. To the extent that immediate high-impact events force families out of their homes, such plans are intended cover the minutes, hours, or days it may take to get one’s family to a safe and secure location. In contrast, disaster preparedness involves planning for prolonged catastrophes-perhaps as long as weeks or months-that typically involve hunkering down in one’s home. For example, severe mid-winter ice storms in upstate New York in December 2008 left some remote areas without power and largely inaccessible for as long as two to three weeks. Hurricane Iniki in 1992 left many residents of the island of Kauai in Hawaii without power for months. Discussions of the threats posed by global pandemics, such as avian flu, have suggested that families might be quarantined for months and that the scale of such an outbreak could potentially be so widespread that it might lead to the cessation of municipal services (electricity, water, sewer, trash removal) and even emergency services (first responders, firefighters, police, hospitals, etc.).

Obviously, developing a plan to survive prolonged disasters is much different than preparing for shorter-term emergencies. At present, there is no standardized checklist of considerations or supplies, although the American Red Cross and FEMA offer checklists. See the Appendix for some of the items common to many preparedness checklists as well as certain less consistently referenced items that merit wider consideration. Most items are inexpensive and are easily obtainable online or at local pharmacies, supermarkets, or camping supply stores.

Conclusion

This paper is presented as a thought piece for ushering crisis management into financial planning, and is intended to provide individual planners enough information to assist them in evaluating the degree to which they wish to incorporate it into their practices. For some, it may be sufficient to simply raise client awareness by sharing this information, and for others it may serve as a starting point for building a deeper knowledge base. With respect to the latter, thoughtful study reveals that grassroots crisis management planning is still in its infancy and suffers from a lack of standardized terms and a dearth of empirically supported research. Even a cursory layperson’s review of the leading informational websites such as those of the American Red Cross and FEMA reveals obvious advisory gaps and impractical solutions that suggest a need for greater critical thinking. For instance, the common guidance that families carry a three-day supply of water consisting of a gallon per person, per day is intuitively impractical (a family of five would need to carry 15 gallons of water). In this case, a more realistically implementable solution might be a lightweight portable water bottle with a filter (commonly available in camping supply stores) that would enable a family to easily and safely convert rain, lake, stream, or pool water into drinking water. Chlorine tablets are another simple, compact potability solution listed on some websites, and are arguably a best practice than storing and toting gallon jugs of water. Similarly, the common guidance of stockpiling batteries for flashlights and lanterns is arguably less sound than kinetic flashlights and/or solar-charged lighting. The recommendation to include matches or lighters in an emergency kit instead of a camping flint that would be functional even when wet is yet another example of the need for deeper thinking at the household-planning level. Indeed, FEMA itself is aware of its shortcomings, as the preparedness section of the agency’s website solicits the general public to submit improved best practices.

In terms of the debate over whether such discussions even belong within the financial planner’s bailiwick, this discussion has illustrated that certain aspects of crisis management are clearly and directly germane to the planning function. Although concepts such as emergency grab-and-go kits and disaster planning checklists are admittedly a bit removed from standard investment planning discourse, many other topics also fall squarely under the traditional financial planning umbrella but have little direct relevance to personal finance or investing. For instance, the common practice of educating clients regarding the importance of durable powers of attorney and advance health-care directives are basic elements of estate planning with little direct relevance to the client’s financial position. With respect to the question of whether financial planners are even qualified to be dispensing crisis management advice, just as it is not, in most cases, the planner’s role to give specific estate planning or tax planning guidance, the planner nonetheless serves a valuable role in raising client awareness of important issues and directing them to the professionals, organizations, or institutions with the requisite expertise. Aside from the obvious relationship strengthening that can come from such value-added services, if it is not financial planners’ role to discuss such matters with their clients, then what other professionals are in a position to fill this void? In conclusion, it is hoped this discussion will stir debate within the financial planning community and generate critical thinking to advance the prototypical concepts presented here.

Appendix

Emergency Grab-and-Go Kit

  • First-aid kit and guidebook
  • Two kinetic flashlights (at least one with beacon flash)
  • Fire-starting mechanism (matches, lighter, flint)
  • Multi-function tool
  • Water bottle with purification filter
  • 6′ x 8′ plastic tarp (ground moisture barrier or temporary shelter covering)
  • Compact emergency space blankets/rain ponchos (hypothermia protection)
  • NP-95 surgical masks (one for each family member)
  • Lightweight dry rations (one to three meals)
  • Whistle and signal flares
  • Hygiene items (toothbrushes, toothpaste, antibacterial soap, hand towel, etc.)
  • Special medical items
  • Duct tape, rope
  • Pepper spray

Disaster-Preparedness Checklist

Short-Term Supplies Longer-Term Solutions Food and Water (three months’ worth) Hygiene Supplies (3 months’ worth)
Portable generator Solar rechargeable batteries Portable water purification bottles Toilet Paper
Batteries (multiples sizes) Solar rechargeable lighting Water purification system Toothpaste
Matches, lighters, or camping flint Solar power generation array Chlorine tablets or bleach (unscented)* Feminine care products
Gasoline, kerosene, propane Siphon Non-perishable canned goods Medical prescriptions
Camping lanterns Kinetic flashlights Pastas, non-perishable dry goods Sealable garbage bags
Outdoor solar camping shower Multi-vitamins Anti-bacterial dish soap
Screened tent or cheesecloth (insects) Chlorine tablets or bleach (unscented)* Bath soap
Insect repellent, citronella lanterns Pet food Disposable latex gloves
NP-95 surgical masks
Rubbing alcohol

* 16 drops ordinary chlorine bleach per gallon of drinking water. For disinfection/sanitation, mix one part chlorine for every nine parts water.
References

Biggs, Barton. 2008. Wealth, War, and Wisdom. Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley and Sons.

Redlener, Irwin. 2008. “Population Vulnerabilities, Preconditions, and the Consequences of Disasters.” Social Research 75, no. 3 (Fall): 785-792.

Redlener, Irwin, Roy Grant, David Abramson, and David Johnson. 2008. “The 2008 American Preparedness Project: Why Parents May not Heed Evacuation Orders & What Emergency Planners, Families and Schools Need to Know.” Annual survey of the American public by the National Center for Disaster Preparedness, Columbia University, Mailman School of Public Health and the Children’s Health Fund.

Salahi, Lara. “Disaster Preparedness: Could the U.S. Hold Water?” ABC News, March 17, 2011.

Sutton, Jeannette, and Kathleen Tierney. 2006. “Disaster Preparedness: Concepts, Guidance, and Research.” White paper prepared for the Fritz Institute Assessing Disaster Preparedness Conference, Sebastopol, California, November 3 and 4.

 

A Wild Ride—Taking a Closer Look at Recent Market Volatility

August 19, 2011 by · Leave a Comment 

By:
SEI Investment Management

Global financial markets experienced significant volatility earlier this month, with average daily movements of 4.25% in the S&P 500 from August 4 to August 11.  Looking at the historic day-to-day changes in the S&P 500 since 1950, we find that the average change is 0.03%, and the
average magnitude of these changes is 0.65%. In other words, the average daily movement, whether up or down, has been slightly more than half of a percent. If we applied normal statistical assumptions to the data, a change of 3% or more would be quite surprising.

Despite the recent volatility, our view of the markets remains intact. Strategically, the U.S. economy appears to have entered a soft patch from which it is likely to emerge without entering recession. Equity valuations appear attractive to us, and we believe Treasury prices are rich. Unfortunately, markets continue to react in an irrational fashion, and we expect them to continue to do so until the European debt situation is resolved, the U.S. debt ceiling is permanently addressed and the 2012 elections have come and gone.

Read the full report from SEI – Market Volatility

Economic Insights: Weekly Jobless Claims 8/6/2011

August 12, 2011 by · Leave a Comment 

 By: SEI Investment Management Unit

Weekly jobless claims compiled by the U.S. Department of Labor for the week ending August 6 came in at 395,000. This was a decrease of 7,000 from last week’s revised number of 402,000.

 

Our View

After 17 consecutive weeks of claims registering north of 400,000, this week’s number finally fell below that psychological mark while also setting a four-month low. Hopefully, this is the start of a new trend. With the market in need of positive data to at least partially offset recent negative developments, the claims number was welcomed by investors.

The four–week moving average, which is less volatile, fell to 405,000 from 408,250 the prior week. This is the preferred measure, as it smoothes weekly volatility and provides a better gauge of the labor environment. Individuals continuing to collect benefits fell by 60,000 to 3,688,000 for the week ending July 30. This statistic lags initial claims by one week.

With all of the recent market volatility, we need the recent good news from the labor front to keep coming. At this point, SEI continues to believe that the U.S. economy will not fall into a recession, and remains cautiously optimistic that moderate economic growth will pick up throughout the remainder of 2011.

Read the complete report – Economic Insights_Weekly Jobless Report

Muddling Through After the Debt Ceiling Debate

August 4, 2011 by · Leave a Comment 

debt ceiling vote

  •  After months of political wrangling, a deal has been reached to raise the U.S. debt ceiling.
  • Few are happy with the results, and long-term measures to address the debt must still be implemented.
  • While a debt-rating downgrade is still a very real possibility, the financial markets have already moved beyond the spectacle of the debate and are reacting to the host of indicators signaling a potential economic slowdown.
  • Despite the economic woes, we remain firmly in the camp of those who anticipate continued market advances.
  • We view any market pullbacks as opportunities to add to equity exposures using assets currently invested in U.S. Treasuries or investment-grade securities as a source of funding.

Read the Full Report – After the vote

 

Europe – Why Worry?

July 22, 2011 by · Leave a Comment 

by SEI Management Unit

European leaders are working out the details in the latest effort to mitigate the financial crisis that began in Greece and started to spread to other European nations. While it may be difficult to understand, at first glance, how Greece is relevant to the global financial markets (the country is not a financial, industrial or military power, is not a strategically important commodity exporter and contributes only about half of a percent to world gross domestic product), a default on the country’s debt poses the risk of a financial meltdown similar to the one that followed the failures of investment bank Lehman Brothers and insurance giant AIG in late 2008.

Read the full SEI Reoprt – Europe Why Worry

It’s Déjà Vu All Over Again

July 13, 2011 by · Leave a Comment 

By: James Solloway, CFA, Managing Director, and Senior Portfolio Manager at SEI

If you think you’ve seen this movie before, you’re right. Some of the major issues troubling investors in recent months –Greek debt woes, a general slowing of global economic growth, and a deepening fiscal crisis in Washington – are the same ones that loomed large this time last year. The market reaction to these problems, moreover, has been strikingly similar: Investors have reduced their exposure to equities and other assets perceived as risky, and fled to traditional safe havens, including low-yielding U.S. Treasury securities and German bunds. Equities and commodities have endured a

stiff correction, Treasury bond yields fell below 3% before rebounding at quarter’s end and the dollar has bounced off its lows.

The question on every investor’s mind: Will this year’s episode of market weakness and uncertainty end as positively as last year’s, with growth reaccelerating and equity markets posting strong recoveries? We think the answer is “yes” and view declines as buying opportunities. Consequently, we are maintaining our bullish, pro-cyclical position that tilts toward equities and away from fixed-income securities. We continue to emphasize high-yield bonds over investment-grade debt, with an eye toward increasing bullish leanings if equity valuations become more compelling.

 Read SEI’s full 2nd Quarter Review

So, What about that dismal jobs report?

July 8, 2011 by · Leave a Comment 

No doubt about it, today’s monthly job report was disappointing, but does it spell a double dip?  This report from Bloomberg suggests it may not be as bad as it seems:

http://bloom.bg/rc2AZn#ooid=Z3bjZtMjpL-QH7RupsjEljJ5odu9COe6

Vin Capozzi on Health Care Reform

July 1, 2011 by · Leave a Comment 

THE PATIENT PROTECTION AND AFFORDABLE CARE ACT

Mapping Its Impact On Your Business and Employees

On June 30th, Vin Capozzi Senior VP of Harvard Pilgrim Health Care visited the “world headquarters” of LFS/CCC to lead a discussion on the impact of health care reform under the National and Massachusetts plans.

Our audience included State Representative, David Torissi, Methuen Mayor, Bill Manzi, CPA’s, Attorneys, health care providers, business owners, and clients. 

Vin’s insights illuminated the many challenges we face in tackling the spirilaing costs of our current system, the many headwinds reform faces, and the most difficlut issue of having folks take personal responsibility of their lifestyle to manage health care costs.

We very much appreciate Vin taking the time to speak to our group, and we plan to conduct additional small group meetings on a variety of financial planning topics.  Keep a lookout for email notifications of future meetings.

Greece, Europe in Renewed Turmoil

June 22, 2011 by · Leave a Comment 

 

Concern over Greek debt has again come to the forefront in recent weeks. After receiving a €110 billion loan in May 2010, it now seems that the country is in need of a second financial bailout from the European Union (EU) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The loan, which could be up to a further €100 billion, could help to ensure that Greece is able to continue to service its debt and meet financial obligations over the longer-term.

Private companies and banks have been put under pressure to allow Greece to extend (or restructure) the repayment of any debt owed to them. However, credit rating agencies have warned that this would be viewed as a default and could lead to further downgrades. Greek debt is already rated below investment grade, and the impact on investor sentiment and the wider implications of further negative re-ratings could be huge.

Read the full analysis from SEI - Greece, Europe in Renewed Turmoil

U.S. Credit Downgrade—How Would It Affect Investors?

June 21, 2011 by · Leave a Comment 

 In recent weeks, major credit rating agencies have expressed renewed concern over the fiscal outlook for the U.S. government, even raising the possibility that it could eventually lose its AAA rating. What are the implications for investors? There’s both a short- and a long-term dimension to this question. In the near-term, the Treasury estimates that if its statutory borrowing limit is not soon raised by Congress, it could default on interest and debt repayments by August. This risk is still viewed as remote, but if it did occur, it could cause significant dislocation in markets, and a credit rating downgrade would be justified. Additionally, rating agencies worry that the U.S. government is on an unsustainable long-term fiscal path. Does any of this lead us to believe that investors should not own U.S. government debt?

Read the full report from SEI    How Would a Credit Downgrade Affect Investors?

May Retail Sales Report

June 16, 2011 by · Leave a Comment 

retail sales

 

The U.S. Department of Commerce’s Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services report revealed that May headline retail sales fell .2%, which was slightly better than market expectations. The report, which contains estimated monthly sales for retail and food services that are adjusted and unadjusted for seasonal variations, also showed that retail sales less gas and autos increased .3%, just above the market consensus of .2%. April’s headline number was revised lower to .3%, while the ex-gas and autos statistic was revised higher to .3%.

Read SEI’s full research report – May Retail Sales

Another Piece of the Inflation Puzzle

June 9, 2011 by · Leave a Comment 

 

Speculation about inflation is increasing as geopolitical tensions disrupt the production and supply of oil. As a result, gas prices have risen dramatically, shooting up $1.02 to $3.87 for regular unleaded from $2.85 a year ago. Since prices at the pump are highly visible and have an immediate and direct impact on consumers, people are wondering whether inflation—if it is  present—is transitory or is settling in for the long haul. 

 Below is a video presentation by Sean Simko, Head of SEI’s Fixed Income Portfolio Management team discussing the most current thinking.

Watch Video: http://www.seic.com/enUS/about/5648.htm 

 

Most Americans Haven’t Planned for Retirement and Other Areas of Concern.

June 9, 2011 by · Leave a Comment 

The “troubling picture of the state of financial capability in the United States” comes from a new working paper published by the National Bureau of Economic Research, authored by Professor Annamaria Lusardi of the George Washington School of Business. “Americans’ Financial Capability” surveyed nearly 1,500 Americans in the summer 2009 and found that not only is the household financial hole deep, but people might not be able to dig themselves out of it as easily as they thought.

Read the full article from the Wall Streeet Journal – Most Americans Haven’t Planned for Retirement

U.S. Inflation—Not a Serious Threat

June 3, 2011 by · Leave a Comment 

 Inflation Worries

 

Inflation is the topic on everyone’s mind. In the United States, a visit to the gas station is enough to cause most people to worry. In emerging-market countries, the rising cost of food has resulted in significant geopolitical unrest. While the prospects of $5-per-gallon gasoline and $4-per-gallon milk aren’t things we like to consider as consumers, as investors, SEI’s portfolios managers don’t view inflation as a major concern.   Read the full report:

U.S. Inflation – Not A Serious Threat

 

Weekly Economic Update from SEI

May 31, 2011 by · 2 Comments 

stock marketWith a plethora of economic reports due in the next few days, all eyes will be on the fragile recovery.  The housing market looks like a “double dipper”, but what will the next round of reports bring, and what impact will it have on your portfolio?

SEI May31 weekly update

THE PATIENT PROTECTION AND AFFORDABLE CARE ACT

May 20, 2011 by · Leave a Comment 

Federal Healthcare Reform

Health Care Reform

The passage of Federal Health Care Reform, also known as the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, provides opportunities and challenges for all parts of our health care system, including employers, consumers, providers and insurers. We are committed to providing our clients with information about health reform and how it may impact them.

Harvard Pilgrim Health Care has prepared a wonderful document that explains the impact of reform on employers and their employees:

Mapping the Impact on Your Business and Employees