Quarterly Economic Outlook
January 9, 2012 by Tom Licciardello, CFP · Leave a Comment
By: James Solloway, CFA, Managing Director, Senior Portfolio Manager
The Global Portfolio Strategies Group recently released its fourth-quarter economic outlook. A summary of its conclusions is provided below:
Europe’s debt crisis will continue to fester, although the endgame–including a restructuring of the eurozone–is within sight.
We expect recessionary conditions in much of Europe in the early part of next year.
The U.S. should avoid a recession. However, as has occurred in each of the past two years, there will likely be growth scares that temporarily pull down equity prices.
Emerging economies should continue to grow more quickly than developed markets, although the banking crisis in the eurozone will hurt the prospects of Eastern Europe.
China’s slowing growth could depress growth rates elsewhere in Asia.
SEI looks for another year of easy monetary policy in the U.S. and a further shift toward easing by the european Central Bank, as the latter combats recession and the impact of the sovereign debt crisis on the banking system.
Even in a scenario where the eurozone remains intact, we believe the euro itself could come under substantial downward pressure.
We expect inflation to remain mostly inactive for another year. However, unpredictable, high-impact events (so-called black swans), along the lines of last year’s Arab spring and Japanese earthquake/tsunami/nuclear meltdown, cannot be ruled out. Obvious candidates include an uncontrolled breakup of the eurozone, intensifying political and military tensions with Iran over its expanding nuclear capabilities and a political and economic collapse of North Korea in the wake of ruler Kim Jong Il’s death.
In terms of active asset allocation, we took advantage of the pop in stock prices during the final quarter of 2011 to even up our stock/bond positioning relative to strategic weights in the portfolios over which we have discretion. However, we continue to favor high-yield fixed-income assets versus investment-grade and sovereign debt. Within equities, we are overweight U.S. large-cap versus international, and remain particularly cautious on Europe ex-U.K. We also believe the exchange value of the euro could be at risk.
Read Jim’s full analysis – Pivotal Year Ahead
Eurozone Crisis Hits Home
November 15, 2011 by Tom Licciardello, CFP · Leave a Comment

U.S. Investors Focused on Capital, Counter-Party Risks
By: SEI Investment Management Unit
- As government debt problems intensify in the European Monetary Union (EMU), financial firms outside of Europe have come under increasing pressure.
- MF Global, a small U.S.-based broker-dealer, recently declared bankruptcy due to its exposure to EMU government debt; another, Jefferies, has come under intense investor scrutiny. These episodes illustrate the powerful effects that fear and uncertainty can have on investor behavior and market volatility.
- The larger issue is not individual firms, but the risk of contagion from Europe to the global financial system and world economy.
Read SEI’s complete analysis – Eurozone crisis hits home
That Pesky European Issue…Ewww!
November 11, 2011 by Tom Licciardello, CFP · 1 Comment
- Although critical details are still being worked out, the European Union’s (EU) recently announced rescue package for Greece is the broadest, most strategic attempt yet to deal with Europe’s sovereign debt crisis.
- The plan aims to lower Greece’s government debt-to-gross-domestic-product ratio over the next decade while containing potential short-term damage to the financial system, increasing the size of the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF), and garnering support from private-sector investors and foreign governments.
- Greece, which must agree to the plan before it can be implemented, is experiencing serious political upheaval. It must first form an interim unity government and name a new prime minister before the proposed rescue plan can be voted on.
- Under the most optimistic outcome, the plan buys Greece, troubled European governments, and the European and global financial system some more time, kicking the can further down the road to be fully dealt with at a later date. A more pessimistic view is that Greece and its creditors will experience a disorderly debt collapse, and Greece will be forced to exit the European Monetary Union (EMU or eurozone, the countries that have adopted the euro as their official currency).
- Whatever the outcome, bringing additional clarity to the issue is likely to benefit financial markets and investors far more than the prevailing confusion and uncertainty.
SEI’s View:
…We are not in the camp of those calling for global recession, but we do not expect the world economy to do much more than continue to muddle along for the foreseeable future. While certain risky asset classes continue to carry attractive long-term price tags in our view, investor fear and risk aversion remain elevated, even after the recent equity rally. For the foreseeable future, the fate of world financial markets will continue to hinge in large part on the direction of Europe’s debt crisis, financial system and economy.
Driving Into Second Gear
October 18, 2011 by Tom Licciardello, CFP · 1 Comment
The link below will bring you to a short 7 minute presentation (prepared courtesy of SEI Investments and presented by the Compass Capital Corporation Chief Investment Officer, Tim Shanahan) to advise you on our current thinking about the economic recovery so far in 2011 and some of our reasons for optimism and reasons for caution. In any case please remember that we have built your portfolio for a time like this.
Driving Into Second Gear
Note this presentation requires Adobe 9or X or better to view.
Thanks for taking the time to watch it and if you have any questions please feel free to contact us.
August Angst
August 31, 2011 by Tom Licciardello, CFP · Leave a Comment
Sometimes it’s best to just not look!
The volatility of August certainly made riding a roller coaster seem mild. The best way to deal with wild fluctuations is to keep an eye on long term goals and current cash flow needs. As your Financial Advisor, we keep a constant eye on your portfolio and structure it to give the best possible chance of realizing those goals. But, if your goals change, your allocation may need to be changed, so stay in touch!
Incorporating Emergency Planning and Disaster Preparedness into Financial Planning
August 27, 2011 by Tom Licciardello, CFP · Leave a Comment
John H. Robinson is a Honolulu-based financial planner. He has written and published numerous peer-reviewed professional papers including the CFP Board of Standards 2008 Outstanding Paper Award winner and the 2010 International Foundation for Retirement Education Best Paper Award winner, both of which he co-authored with the University of Hawaii’s Shidler College of Business. He has been in the planning profession since 1989.
Executive Summary
- Despite the media attention in the wake of several recent natural disasters, emergency planning and disaster preparedness remain relegated to the backwaters of financial planning. This paper argues that the topic merits the same level of consideration in the client-planner dialogue as other holistic planning topics, such as estate planning, asset protection, and insurance risk management.
- The author suggests that a distinction be made between emergency planning and disaster preparedness and that both be considered sub-topics under the broader heading of crisis management.
- This paper introduces advisers to a number of resources to help them build a knowledge base and offers a basic framework for developing a crisis management plan for individual families.
- The author contends that many of the planning strategies recommended by leading public institutions, such as the Federal Emergency Management Association (FEMA) and the American Red Cross, are not best practices, and suggests that there is a need for greater critical thinking.
- Although some may contend that crisis management is outside the realm of financial planning, this paper shows that certain aspects of it are directly germane and suggests that financial planners are uniquely positioned to raise client awareness, even if such issues are beyond the planner’s normal range of expertise.
As happened in the wake of Hurricane Katrina; the recent earthquake in Japan; the tornados in Mississippi, Tennessee, and Massachusetts; and the engineered flooding in Louisiana have focused a spotlight on emergency planning and disaster preparedness. However, despite extensive media attention, crisis management remains relegated to the backwaters of financial planning, with only a small minority of planners incorporating it into their practices. Reasons for this are likely varied. For some advisers, reluctance to include crisis management in the planner-client dialogue may be attributable to negative perceptions and stereotypes of “survivalists.” Other advisers may argue that it is beyond the scope of the planner’s expertise or that, as important as it may be, it is outside the realm of financial planning.
A review of both recent news articles and scholarly literature shows that “emergency” and “disaster” are often employed interchangeably. However, although these two terms are certainly related under the broad heading of crisis management, they are not perfectly synonymous, and the financial planning community would do well to formalize this distinction. Specifically, “emergency” is implicitly associated with urgency and the need for a short-term response, and “disaster” invokes images of prolonged or permanent devastation. From a professional planning perspective, it seems sensible to define “emergency planning” as an action plan or set of plans for helping families respond quickly and rationally to potential crises and to define “disaster preparedness” as more of a checklist of items a family might need to manage a particular prolonged crisis.
The fact that agencies such as the Federal Emergency Management Association (FEMA) and the American Red Cross have devoted significant resources to educating the American public about how to prepare for various threats suggests that crisis management merits mainstream consideration. According to FEMA, an average of 50 natural disasters of varying scale occurs each year in the United States, and no locations are immune to such threats. The notion that the topic warrants household-level discussion is bolstered by recent public comments from Dr. Jonathan Links, director of Johns Hopkins Center for Public Health Preparedness, who noted in an ABC News interview that although the federal and state governments have preparedness plans in place, most American families are ill-prepared to respond to catastrophe. This sentiment is echoed by director of the National Center for Disaster Preparedness Dr. Irwin Redlener, who in a 2008 paper in the journal Social Research stated, “What has been surprising, and, to a large extent disconcerting, has been an appreciation developed since 2001 of the complexity and inadequacy of societal preparation for, mitigation of, and recovery from very large-scale disasters.” This paper seeks to introduce the planning community to the topic in greater detail and argues that it merits inclusion in the profession alongside other standard non-investment-related topics, such as estate planning, asset protection, and insurance risk management.
Financial Preparedness
Despite the position of some advisers that crisis management is beyond the realm of financial planning, there are a number of aspects to protecting one’s finances in the face of a crisis that are clearly germane to the planning function. For instance, many emergency planning publications and websites suggest keeping a certain amount of cash on hand in the event that banks and the networks that operate credit cards and ATM machines are not operational. There does not appear to be any widespread agreement on the amount of emergency cash one should have and there is no empirical research guidance on a “proper” allocation percentage or dollar amount, but the consensus seems to be in the $100-$1,000 range. The desire to keep more than that amount on hand must be balanced against the obvious security risks of keeping large sums of cash in one’s home or automobile. Incorporating such guidance into the existing dialogue should be relatively simple. To the extent, that the planner has already determined an appropriate allocation for normal liquidity and emergency reserves, suggesting that clients allocate some sub-set of these reserves to physical currency is an easy step that allows the clients to personalize the amount based upon their circumstances and perceived vulnerability.
Another important financial preparedness step that is regularly recommended in social science publications and leading online crisis management websites is to preserve copies of important family financial information. Bank, brokerage, and real property records are commonly referenced items for inclusion, but a comprehensive best practices checklist should likely also include such items as copies of driver’s licenses, passports, Social Security cards, estate planning documents, credit cards (front and back), appraisal records, birth and marriage records, medical records, and insurance information. Although preparedness publications and websites commonly suggest making physical or digital back-up copies of this information and storing them at a location away from one’s home, such as in one’s office or in a safe deposit box; an alternative back-up storage solution that warrants best practice consideration is to subscribe to a web-based online vaulting facility. In addition to being arguably more secure than many non-bank brick-and-mortar storage facilities, this solution lends itself well to regular updating and allows 24/7 access to one’s data from anywhere on the planet where there is Internet service. (Although not directly related to one’s finances, family photos are often priceless and irreplaceable, and also lend themselves well to such online archiving.)
On the more extreme end of the financial preparedness spectrum, the financial crises of the past decade have led some Americans to consider hoarding gold and silver bullion and coins. Although these instruments may be suitable as low-correlation diversifiers or as tool for hedging against inflation for a portion of an investment portfolio, the practicality of using precious metals as a form of currency during a prolonged crisis is debatable, and the likelihood of an apocalyptic event that would create such circumstances is low. Intuitively, the notion that gold bullion or coins such as Krugerrands, Maple Leafs, or American Eagles will become standard currency seems far-fetched, as one can envision the difficulty of a task as simple as making change. That said, some entrepreneurial bullion dealers have taken to selling 1-ounce bars divisible into one-eighths or one-tenths denominations for this very purpose. As suggested by famed Wall Street economist and author of the 2008 survivalist tome Wealth, War, and Wisdom, Barton Biggs, the greater likelihood in such a dire, extreme environment is that a barter system would prevail and that basic materials such as food and water would reign as the precious commodities of the day. As with hoarding cash, the potential benefits of storing large quantities of precious metals at one’s home must be balanced against the security risks (fire, theft, tornado, etc.). Similarly, a few purveyors of crisis management guidance also recommend establishing foreign bank accounts to provide security abroad in the event of a domestic financial collapse. Again, the probability of an event that would require such a safe haven is generally regarded as extremely low, although if one regularly travels to a particular country or foreign region, it might be a rational planning step in the context of other financial objectives.
Literature and Resources
A financial planner’s foray into providing crisis management guidance necessarily begins with a foundation of knowledge beyond just the cursory information and tips provided by the popular press. For those financial planners who wish to become better informed on crisis management issues, scanning the existing body of published academic and professional research is a logical place to start. Although there is a paucity of published research in traditional finance journals, there is a trove of literature in social science publications. Although a preponderance of this material is written for public policy officials, health organizations, and large corporations, a considerable volume of information may be useful for grassroots-level individual planning. One such paper is “Disaster Preparedness: Concepts, Guidance, and Research” (2006) by Jeannette Sutton and Kathleen Tierney of the University of Colorado’s Institute of Behavioral Science Natural Hazards Center. The report provides exhaustive professional insight into all levels of planning and contains an extraordinarily detailed 18-page Household Preparedness checklist (see the Appendix for an abbreviated version of such a checklist).
Another suitable piece is “The 2008 American Preparedness Project: Why Parents May Not Heed Evacuation Orders and What Emergency Planners, Families, and Schools Need to Know.” This paper, produced by Columbia University’s Mailman School of Public Health, highlights important findings from a 2008 preparedness survey. The introduction to the paper notes, “Current and trend data from these surveys reveal a disjuncture between Americans’ awareness and sensitivity to possible natural and man-made threats and their consistently low levels of personal preparedness.” The surveys reveal that approximately half of parents do not know the location to which their children would be evacuated as part of their school’s disaster plan. The survey data also found that only 44 percent of families have all or some of the basic elements of a disaster preparedness plan.
In addition to published academic research, a wealth of important crisis management information is available on public websites. FEMA (www.fema.gov) and the American Red Cross (www.redcross.org) are probably the two best-known resources, and both contain a tremendous amount of important family-specific guidance. Other useful resource sites include the aforementioned National Hazards Center (www.colorado.edu/hazards, which serves as a clearinghouse for preparedness research), the National Center for Disaster Preparedness (www.ncdp.mailman.columbia.edu), and the Johns Hopkins Center for Public Health Preparedness (www.jhsph.edu/preparedness).
A Planner’s Starting Point: Hazard Identification
According to the aforementioned treatise by Sutton and Tierney, identifying the most likely threats is the starting point for building a family-centered crisis management plan. Table 1 lists many of the national and man-made threats, categorized by geographic scale, referenced on institutional and governmental crisis management websites.
Table 1 Types of Emergencies
| Local | Regional | National/Global |
| House fire | Power outage | Pandemic/epidemic |
| Home invasion | Hurricane | Financial collapse |
| Tornado | Earthquake | Volcanic eruption |
| Flooding | Tsunami | Nuclear disaster |
| Landslide/rockfall | Terrorism | |
| Chemical release | ||
| Nuclear disaster | ||
| Wildfire | ||
| Winter storm | ||
| Dam failure | ||
| Volcanic eruption |
Although some of these potential threats apply to all families, others are regional or local in nature. To assess the various threats posed to each family, planners and their clients are advised to consult their local department of emergency management (or equivalent municipal preparedness division) website. These sites typically provide locally specific information such as evacuation zone maps, maps of emergency shelter locations, and other important geographically precise preparedness guidance.
Consideration of the range of threats posted in Table 1 intuitively leads to the conclusion that at least two separate sets of emergency plans are required for each family-one for threats that require evacuating the family from its place of residence and another for threats that may require retreating to the residence. A third, perhaps less intuitive, emergency plan is also required for addressing crises that occur when family members are separated from each other. The design of such plans may be expected to involve a confluence of considerations, such as housing type (house, condo, apartment, etc.), topographic and geographic location, number of family members, proximity to aid (neighbors, police, fire, first responders, etc.), and whether there are any special needs considerations (elderly or disabled family members, young children, and/or pets). Although each family’s set of emergency plans is likely unique, Table 2 lists some common elements for each of the three types of plans.
Table 2 Common Elements of the Three Types of Family Emergency Plans
| Home Evacuation Plan: Immediate Local Threat (fire, home invasion, etc.) | Home Evacuation Plan: Impending External Threat (tsunami, tornado, hurricane, etc.) | Plan for Handling Family Separation |
| Have smoke/carbon monoxide detectors, fire extinguishers | Keep emergency grab-and-go kits in each car (see Appendix) | Have two-way radios in each vehicle and one for each child |
| Have security system with 911 panic button in master bedroom keypad | Establish an evacuation destination in advance | Designate a distant relative or friend as point of contact |
| Have fire escapes/emergency ladders from children’s bedrooms | Plan an alternate destination in case of inaccessibility | Use Red Cross “Safe and Well” registration |
| Put flashlights in every room or at least every bedroom | Pre-plan for elderly, disabled, pet evacuations | Pre-plan for gathering young children, elderly, people with disabilities |
| Identify two escape routes from every room | Post family evacuation plan in common area | Learn school or daycare evacuation plans |
| Select a nearby place to gather following evacuation | Review and update plan regularly | Put emergency contact information in young children’s backpacks |
| Store important family and financial information in secure online vault (driver’s licenses, passports, credit cards, family photos, planning docs, etc.) |
The emergency plans in Table 2 assist families in surviving and enduring potentially traumatic events over a short period. To the extent that immediate high-impact events force families out of their homes, such plans are intended cover the minutes, hours, or days it may take to get one’s family to a safe and secure location. In contrast, disaster preparedness involves planning for prolonged catastrophes-perhaps as long as weeks or months-that typically involve hunkering down in one’s home. For example, severe mid-winter ice storms in upstate New York in December 2008 left some remote areas without power and largely inaccessible for as long as two to three weeks. Hurricane Iniki in 1992 left many residents of the island of Kauai in Hawaii without power for months. Discussions of the threats posed by global pandemics, such as avian flu, have suggested that families might be quarantined for months and that the scale of such an outbreak could potentially be so widespread that it might lead to the cessation of municipal services (electricity, water, sewer, trash removal) and even emergency services (first responders, firefighters, police, hospitals, etc.).
Obviously, developing a plan to survive prolonged disasters is much different than preparing for shorter-term emergencies. At present, there is no standardized checklist of considerations or supplies, although the American Red Cross and FEMA offer checklists. See the Appendix for some of the items common to many preparedness checklists as well as certain less consistently referenced items that merit wider consideration. Most items are inexpensive and are easily obtainable online or at local pharmacies, supermarkets, or camping supply stores.
Conclusion
This paper is presented as a thought piece for ushering crisis management into financial planning, and is intended to provide individual planners enough information to assist them in evaluating the degree to which they wish to incorporate it into their practices. For some, it may be sufficient to simply raise client awareness by sharing this information, and for others it may serve as a starting point for building a deeper knowledge base. With respect to the latter, thoughtful study reveals that grassroots crisis management planning is still in its infancy and suffers from a lack of standardized terms and a dearth of empirically supported research. Even a cursory layperson’s review of the leading informational websites such as those of the American Red Cross and FEMA reveals obvious advisory gaps and impractical solutions that suggest a need for greater critical thinking. For instance, the common guidance that families carry a three-day supply of water consisting of a gallon per person, per day is intuitively impractical (a family of five would need to carry 15 gallons of water). In this case, a more realistically implementable solution might be a lightweight portable water bottle with a filter (commonly available in camping supply stores) that would enable a family to easily and safely convert rain, lake, stream, or pool water into drinking water. Chlorine tablets are another simple, compact potability solution listed on some websites, and are arguably a best practice than storing and toting gallon jugs of water. Similarly, the common guidance of stockpiling batteries for flashlights and lanterns is arguably less sound than kinetic flashlights and/or solar-charged lighting. The recommendation to include matches or lighters in an emergency kit instead of a camping flint that would be functional even when wet is yet another example of the need for deeper thinking at the household-planning level. Indeed, FEMA itself is aware of its shortcomings, as the preparedness section of the agency’s website solicits the general public to submit improved best practices.
In terms of the debate over whether such discussions even belong within the financial planner’s bailiwick, this discussion has illustrated that certain aspects of crisis management are clearly and directly germane to the planning function. Although concepts such as emergency grab-and-go kits and disaster planning checklists are admittedly a bit removed from standard investment planning discourse, many other topics also fall squarely under the traditional financial planning umbrella but have little direct relevance to personal finance or investing. For instance, the common practice of educating clients regarding the importance of durable powers of attorney and advance health-care directives are basic elements of estate planning with little direct relevance to the client’s financial position. With respect to the question of whether financial planners are even qualified to be dispensing crisis management advice, just as it is not, in most cases, the planner’s role to give specific estate planning or tax planning guidance, the planner nonetheless serves a valuable role in raising client awareness of important issues and directing them to the professionals, organizations, or institutions with the requisite expertise. Aside from the obvious relationship strengthening that can come from such value-added services, if it is not financial planners’ role to discuss such matters with their clients, then what other professionals are in a position to fill this void? In conclusion, it is hoped this discussion will stir debate within the financial planning community and generate critical thinking to advance the prototypical concepts presented here.
Appendix
Emergency Grab-and-Go Kit
- First-aid kit and guidebook
- Two kinetic flashlights (at least one with beacon flash)
- Fire-starting mechanism (matches, lighter, flint)
- Multi-function tool
- Water bottle with purification filter
- 6′ x 8′ plastic tarp (ground moisture barrier or temporary shelter covering)
- Compact emergency space blankets/rain ponchos (hypothermia protection)
- NP-95 surgical masks (one for each family member)
- Lightweight dry rations (one to three meals)
- Whistle and signal flares
- Hygiene items (toothbrushes, toothpaste, antibacterial soap, hand towel, etc.)
- Special medical items
- Duct tape, rope
- Pepper spray
Disaster-Preparedness Checklist
| Short-Term Supplies | Longer-Term Solutions | Food and Water (three months’ worth) | Hygiene Supplies (3 months’ worth) |
| Portable generator | Solar rechargeable batteries | Portable water purification bottles | Toilet Paper |
| Batteries (multiples sizes) | Solar rechargeable lighting | Water purification system | Toothpaste |
| Matches, lighters, or camping flint | Solar power generation array | Chlorine tablets or bleach (unscented)* | Feminine care products |
| Gasoline, kerosene, propane | Siphon | Non-perishable canned goods | Medical prescriptions |
| Camping lanterns | Kinetic flashlights | Pastas, non-perishable dry goods | Sealable garbage bags |
| Outdoor solar camping shower | Multi-vitamins | Anti-bacterial dish soap | |
| Screened tent or cheesecloth (insects) | Chlorine tablets or bleach (unscented)* | Bath soap | |
| Insect repellent, citronella lanterns | Pet food | Disposable latex gloves | |
| NP-95 surgical masks | |||
| Rubbing alcohol |
* 16 drops ordinary chlorine bleach per gallon of drinking water. For disinfection/sanitation, mix one part chlorine for every nine parts water.
References
Biggs, Barton. 2008. Wealth, War, and Wisdom. Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley and Sons.
Redlener, Irwin. 2008. “Population Vulnerabilities, Preconditions, and the Consequences of Disasters.” Social Research 75, no. 3 (Fall): 785-792.
Redlener, Irwin, Roy Grant, David Abramson, and David Johnson. 2008. “The 2008 American Preparedness Project: Why Parents May not Heed Evacuation Orders & What Emergency Planners, Families and Schools Need to Know.” Annual survey of the American public by the National Center for Disaster Preparedness, Columbia University, Mailman School of Public Health and the Children’s Health Fund.
Salahi, Lara. “Disaster Preparedness: Could the U.S. Hold Water?” ABC News, March 17, 2011.
Sutton, Jeannette, and Kathleen Tierney. 2006. “Disaster Preparedness: Concepts, Guidance, and Research.” White paper prepared for the Fritz Institute Assessing Disaster Preparedness Conference, Sebastopol, California, November 3 and 4.
A Wild Ride—Taking a Closer Look at Recent Market Volatility
August 19, 2011 by Tom Licciardello, CFP · Leave a Comment
By:
SEI Investment Management
Global financial markets experienced significant volatility earlier this month, with average daily movements of 4.25% in the S&P 500 from August 4 to August 11. Looking at the historic day-to-day changes in the S&P 500 since 1950, we find that the average change is 0.03%, and the
average magnitude of these changes is 0.65%. In other words, the average daily movement, whether up or down, has been slightly more than half of a percent. If we applied normal statistical assumptions to the data, a change of 3% or more would be quite surprising.
Despite the recent volatility, our view of the markets remains intact. Strategically, the U.S. economy appears to have entered a soft patch from which it is likely to emerge without entering recession. Equity valuations appear attractive to us, and we believe Treasury prices are rich. Unfortunately, markets continue to react in an irrational fashion, and we expect them to continue to do so until the European debt situation is resolved, the U.S. debt ceiling is permanently addressed and the 2012 elections have come and gone.
Read the full report from SEI – Market Volatility
A Brief History of Market Turbulence
August 15, 2011 by Tom Licciardello, CFP · Leave a Comment
By: SEI Investment Management Unit
During periods of turbulence and uncertainty, it’s common to look at prior crises as benchmarks against which current conditions can be assessed, and there’s certainly no shortage of historic episodes that investors can look to for perspective. Economic and financial crises have been a regular feature of monetary economies throughout history. While no two have been exactly alike—they vary widely in size, scope, causes and length—they do tend to share some common characteristics.
Read SEI’s complete report – A Brief History of Market Turbulence
Economic Insights: Weekly Jobless Claims 8/6/2011
August 12, 2011 by Tom Licciardello, CFP · Leave a Comment
By: SEI Investment Management Unit
Weekly jobless claims compiled by the U.S. Department of Labor for the week ending August 6 came in at 395,000. This was a decrease of 7,000 from last week’s revised number of 402,000.
Our View
After 17 consecutive weeks of claims registering north of 400,000, this week’s number finally fell below that psychological mark while also setting a four-month low. Hopefully, this is the start of a new trend. With the market in need of positive data to at least partially offset recent negative developments, the claims number was welcomed by investors.
The four–week moving average, which is less volatile, fell to 405,000 from 408,250 the prior week. This is the preferred measure, as it smoothes weekly volatility and provides a better gauge of the labor environment. Individuals continuing to collect benefits fell by 60,000 to 3,688,000 for the week ending July 30. This statistic lags initial claims by one week.
With all of the recent market volatility, we need the recent good news from the labor front to keep coming. At this point, SEI continues to believe that the U.S. economy will not fall into a recession, and remains cautiously optimistic that moderate economic growth will pick up throughout the remainder of 2011.
Read the complete report – Economic Insights_Weekly Jobless Report
Resisting the Emotional Spin Cycle
August 8, 2011 by Tom Licciardello, CFP · Leave a Comment
Improve long-term returns with patience and focus
As we look back over the first decade of the 21st century, we can draw one undeniable conclusion – it was a bear of a time for investors. Major market declines from 2000 to 2002 and then again in 2008 dragged equity returns well below their long-term averages.
But research will show that, as disappointing as the markets have been, the average investor has fared far worse. As defined by Dalbar, Inc., the average investor refers to the universe of all mutual fund investors whose actions and financial results are restated to represent a single investor. This approach allows the entire universe of mutual fund investors to be used as the statistical sample, ensuring ultimate reliability. And get rid of the foot note from the disclosure section.
Caught in the emotional cycle of investing, many investors continue to pull in and out of the market, abandoning long term strategies, and paying the price with suboptimal returns. A study of investment behavior by a major investment research firm underscores the point. DALBAR, Inc., compares the long-term returns (up to 20 years) of equity fund investors against the S&P 500 Index, which represents a buy-and-hold strategy. In every year since 1998, the average investor has significantly underperformed the index. And although the gap between the two has narrowed in recent years, the average investor continues to hurt themselves with their investment behavior.
How can we improve our behavior in the coming decade, especially in the light of continued volatility? While we can’t say for sure where the markets are headed, the volatility in the recent past should not surprise us. Coming off a major rebound in 2009, a moderate pullback was to be expected, at least until the economy can sustain a long-term recovery.
But as we tell investors time and again, focus less on market behavior and more on your own behavior. The research shows, market timing doesn’t pay. Below are several strategies that have served investors well for generations.
Long Term Care Insurance – Is it Right for You?
August 8, 2011 by Tom Licciardello, CFP · Leave a Comment
As a sixty-two year old who manages the financial affairs for families and businesses, I find myself in a very interesting position as both an advisor and potential customer when it come to the subject of Long Term Care Insurance. I am at that point in my life where I must give serious consideration as to whether or not my wife and I should obtain LTC insurance, so I personally understand the difficulty of the decision. In fact, I have been deliberating this decision for the past 12 years!
Since each person’s situation is unique, there is no one correct answer, however, there are some important issues to consider when making this decision. The first, of course, is to understand the problem this insurance is designed to address.
As a result of modern medicine, most of us will enjoy a much longer life than our predecessors. Actuarially, a 65 year old is expected to live nearly 19 more years – that’s 7 years more than in 1900. That’s the good news. The bad news is that along with longevity, we are experiencing more of the chronic issues that often plague older folks and make fully independent living difficult or impossible.
Typically the progression starts with a medical issue that, for the most part, is covered by health insurance, Medicare and Medicare Supplements. If the medical issue progresses, care can be supplemented at home by a spouse or family members.
As we get older the concern becomes the management of physical ailments or cognitive impairments that may exceed the ability of our family caregivers and require professional intervention – adult day-care, home health care, assisted living, or full nursing home care. It is at this point that health insurance no longer covers the cost of care, and the financial burden of these modes of care can be extraordinarily expensive. In a study done by Genworth, a leading LTC insurer, the median Massachusetts annual care costs in 2011 were :
| Home Care – Homemaker services – $51,480, Home health aide – $56,628 | ||
| Adult Day Health Care - Adult day health care – $15,600 | ||
|
|
||
| Assisted Living Facility- Private, one bedroom – $59,400 | ||
|
|
||
| Nursing Home Care – Semi-private room – $116,800, Private room – $125,925 | ||
While it is possible that some portion of the above mentioned services may be covered for a short period of time by health insurance, the three primary methods of covering the costs are Self-insurance, Medicaid, and Long Term Care Insurance.
In absence of an alternative, self-paying (your checkbook) continues until virtually all assets are spent. Unless protected in some manner, even the value of your primary residence is an includable asset under self-pay. When assets are spent down, Medicaid will begin covering the costs at a facility that accepts Medicaid reimbursements.
An often employed strategy to protect against the spend down of assets is to transfer ownership irrevocably in order to qualify for Medicaid’s eligibility standards of poverty. The catch is that it requires adequate preplanning to qualify under a 60 month “look back” provision since any transfer within 60 months is still includable. The more difficult concept for many is, however, accepting the notion of giving up control of the assets that are transferred away. The advice of a qualified attorney who specializes in this area is critical to fully understand the process and its implications.
Finally, there is the option of Long Term Care Insurance. Here’s what needs to be considered in reviewing options:
1. What Plan Benefits and Features Should I Select?
2. What Daily or Monthly Benefit Amount Should I Select?
3. What Total Amount of Coverage Should I Choose?
4. How Long Should the Elimination Period Be?
5. How Can I Protect Myself Against the Rising Cost of Care?
To get the best answers to these questions requires a great deal of due diligence and care. Seek the professional assistance of a trusted advisor to solicit quotes from a variety of carriers and guide you through the numerous options that are available. Use caution if speaking to a “specialist” that only sells LTC insurance. As they say, “If all you have is a hammer, pretty soon everything looks like a nail”. An independent advisor is the best bet.
The basic plan design should include coverage for home health care, assisted living, and, of course, a full nursing home care. Every add-on beyond that is an additional expense that may not be necessary.
The benefit amount is based upon the potential cost of care – in our geographic area, $340/day is a reasonable target – minus the portion of that expense, if any, you would self insure. As you might guess, the cost of the coverage is directly linked to the amount of benefit.
The total amount of benefit is linked to the benefit length you select. In addition, benefits typically have an elimination period (waiting period before benefits are paid) of 90 days or more, and a benefit length that may range from 3 years to lifetime. Again, the longer the elimination period, the less expensive, and the longer the benefit period, the more expensive.
It is highly likely that the cost of providing long term care will not go down, so to protect against rising costs LTC policies may contain an optional provision to build in a cost of living adjustment to the benefit amount. It may be a fixed option or a compound benefit, and yes, you guessed it – the more generous the cost of living adjustment, the more expensive the policy.
The two most important factors that affect the cost of LTC insurance over which you have little control are age and health. While policies can be purchased as young as 18, the most typical age that policyholders apply for coverage is between 50 and 65. Married couples can qualify for sizeable discounts if both apply for coverage, but some medical conditions can increase cost or make issuance of a policy impossible.
Presuming that coverage can be issued, there are still several conditions to consider before purchase. Perhaps the most important is the financial impact of the premium. If it affects the ability to maintain a reasonable lifestyle, it is too expensive and probably not a good choice.
An individual’s health history and family health history should also be used as a guide. For example, if you are in excellent health and you have a long family history of folks living long, productive lives that ended with cardiac arrest, your risk factors are low. If, on the other hand, there is a family history of chronic medical problems, your risk factors are high.
Finally, when reviewing quotes from quality carriers such as Genworth, MetLife, Mutual of Omaha, and Transamerica, an important thing to remember is that the premium for quality insurance plans cannot be raised due to your claims. BUT, the insurer can increase the premiums for the whole class of policies. Cost can go up, and there are many examples of insurers who have raised their rates substantially.
So, you might be wondering what I’ve decided. Since the target age for LTC insurance is 50-65, it may take another three years to finally make up my mind!
Tick, Tock…
July 26, 2011 by Tom Licciardello, CFP · Leave a Comment
U.S. Debt Ceiling: The Clock is Ticking
SEI’s Investment Strategies Group and SEI Fixed Income Portfolio Management1 share the opinion that failure to raise the debt ceiling prior to the deadline would likely have a significant, negative impact on the global economy, raising the potential of sliding back into recession.
Due to the severe consequences of late or no action by Congress, we believe an agreement will be reached by the prescribed deadline. While it would not be prudent to discount the possibility of default, we view the potential for such a scenario as being low. It is clearly in the best interests of the U.S. government to take all necessary measures to avoid missed payments or default due to the inability to raise the debt ceiling. Based on our current outlook, SEI’s portfolio managers do not view the debt ceiling debate as a reason to alter our portfolio positioning. We, along with the rest of the world, will watch and wait for Congress to do the right thing.
Europe – Why Worry?
July 22, 2011 by Tom Licciardello, CFP · Leave a Comment
by SEI Management Unit
European leaders are working out the details in the latest effort to mitigate the financial crisis that began in Greece and started to spread to other European nations. While it may be difficult to understand, at first glance, how Greece is relevant to the global financial markets (the country is not a financial, industrial or military power, is not a strategically important commodity exporter and contributes only about half of a percent to world gross domestic product), a default on the country’s debt poses the risk of a financial meltdown similar to the one that followed the failures of investment bank Lehman Brothers and insurance giant AIG in late 2008.
Read the full SEI Reoprt – Europe Why Worry
It’s Déjà Vu All Over Again
July 13, 2011 by Tom Licciardello, CFP · Leave a Comment
If you think you’ve seen this movie before, you’re right. Some of the major issues troubling investors in recent months –Greek debt woes, a general slowing of global economic growth, and a deepening fiscal crisis in Washington – are the same ones that loomed large this time last year. The market reaction to these problems, moreover, has been strikingly similar: Investors have reduced their exposure to equities and other assets perceived as risky, and fled to traditional safe havens, including low-yielding U.S. Treasury securities and German bunds. Equities and commodities have endured a
stiff correction, Treasury bond yields fell below 3% before rebounding at quarter’s end and the dollar has bounced off its lows.
The question on every investor’s mind: Will this year’s episode of market weakness and uncertainty end as positively as last year’s, with growth reaccelerating and equity markets posting strong recoveries? We think the answer is “yes” and view declines as buying opportunities. Consequently, we are maintaining our bullish, pro-cyclical position that tilts toward equities and away from fixed-income securities. We continue to emphasize high-yield bonds over investment-grade debt, with an eye toward increasing bullish leanings if equity valuations become more compelling.
Read SEI’s full 2nd Quarter Review
So, What about that dismal jobs report?
July 8, 2011 by Tom Licciardello, CFP · Leave a Comment
No doubt about it, today’s monthly job report was disappointing, but does it spell a double dip? This report from Bloomberg suggests it may not be as bad as it seems:
http://bloom.bg/rc2AZn#ooid=Z3bjZtMjpL-QH7RupsjEljJ5odu9COe6
Vin Capozzi on Health Care Reform
July 1, 2011 by Tom Licciardello, CFP · Leave a Comment
THE PATIENT PROTECTION AND AFFORDABLE CARE ACT
Mapping Its Impact On Your Business and Employees
On June 30th, Vin Capozzi Senior VP of Harvard Pilgrim Health Care visited the “world headquarters” of LFS/CCC to lead a discussion on the impact of health care reform under the National and Massachusetts plans.
Our audience included State Representative, David Torissi, Methuen Mayor, Bill Manzi, CPA’s, Attorneys, health care providers, business owners, and clients.
Vin’s insights illuminated the many challenges we face in tackling the spirilaing costs of our current system, the many headwinds reform faces, and the most difficlut issue of having folks take personal responsibility of their lifestyle to manage health care costs.
We very much appreciate Vin taking the time to speak to our group, and we plan to conduct additional small group meetings on a variety of financial planning topics. Keep a lookout for email notifications of future meetings.
Greece, Europe in Renewed Turmoil
June 22, 2011 by Tom Licciardello, CFP · Leave a Comment
Concern over Greek debt has again come to the forefront in recent weeks. After receiving a €110 billion loan in May 2010, it now seems that the country is in need of a second financial bailout from the European Union (EU) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The loan, which could be up to a further €100 billion, could help to ensure that Greece is able to continue to service its debt and meet financial obligations over the longer-term.
Private companies and banks have been put under pressure to allow Greece to extend (or restructure) the repayment of any debt owed to them. However, credit rating agencies have warned that this would be viewed as a default and could lead to further downgrades. Greek debt is already rated below investment grade, and the impact on investor sentiment and the wider implications of further negative re-ratings could be huge.
Read the full analysis from SEI - Greece, Europe in Renewed Turmoil
U.S. Credit Downgrade—How Would It Affect Investors?
June 21, 2011 by Tom Licciardello, CFP · Leave a Comment
In recent weeks, major credit rating agencies have expressed renewed concern over the fiscal outlook for the U.S. government, even raising the possibility that it could eventually lose its AAA rating. What are the implications for investors? There’s both a short- and a long-term dimension to this question. In the near-term, the Treasury estimates that if its statutory borrowing limit is not soon raised by Congress, it could default on interest and debt repayments by August. This risk is still viewed as remote, but if it did occur, it could cause significant dislocation in markets, and a credit rating downgrade would be justified. Additionally, rating agencies worry that the U.S. government is on an unsustainable long-term fiscal path. Does any of this lead us to believe that investors should not own U.S. government debt?
Read the full report from SEI How Would a Credit Downgrade Affect Investors?
May Retail Sales Report
June 16, 2011 by Tom Licciardello, CFP · Leave a Comment
The U.S. Department of Commerce’s Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services report revealed that May headline retail sales fell .2%, which was slightly better than market expectations. The report, which contains estimated monthly sales for retail and food services that are adjusted and unadjusted for seasonal variations, also showed that retail sales less gas and autos increased .3%, just above the market consensus of .2%. April’s headline number was revised lower to .3%, while the ex-gas and autos statistic was revised higher to .3%.
Read SEI’s full research report – May Retail Sales








